It has become more expensive to take out a mortgage, hold credit card debt, or get a loan since the beginning of the year.
According to new data, the surge has only just begun, and it could result in job cuts and smaller raises.
If inflation had cooled more than expected in August, the central bank might've stopped raising interest rates and the economy might've avoided a recession.
That never happened. Inflation slowed but not by much. The year-over-year rate fell to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in the previous month. Fed officials have said that they will only pull back on their rate hikes once they see that inflation is slowing. The August report did not match that description.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was no chance of the Fed slowing its roll and raising rates. Markets, economists, and analysts think there will be another 0.75 point hike.
The rate of price growth can be slowed by using interest rates. Americans rein in their spending and businesses slow their plans for expansion because of higher borrowing costs. Demand drops, supply catches up, and the pressure on prices eases.
The labor market is under pressure due to higher rates. Smaller raises are usually issued by companies when borrowing is more expensive. Waning demand can result in companies cutting jobs.
The Fed's September meeting was not affected by the Tuesday inflation print. With little sign of a slowdown, economists are expecting a much more aggressive hiking cycle through the rest of the year.
That means expensive loans, smaller raises, and a heightened risk of job loss for the average American.
Bets on how the Fed will raise rates went up a lot in a single week. The hiking cycle is expected to intensify through the end of the year.
Last week, market positioning showed a 76% likelihood of a hike. The majority of people think officials will raise rates by another 0.75 points in November.
The Fed will not stop there, according to market bets. The odds of a half point hike in December are 40%. Rates would only climb by a quarter point at that meeting, according to options positioning.
Two more 0.75-point hikes and a 0.5-point increase to close out the year are what investors are anticipating. It was expected that rates would be half a percentage point higher at the end of the year. The market is finally coming around to the central bank's "go big or go home" outlook after weeks of strong language from Fed officials.
According to Pantheon's Shepherdson, the Fed has made it clear they won't be taking any chances.
The tightening is affecting Americans' finances. Last week, mortgage rates rose to the highest level since 2008 as home affordability continues to erode. Credit card rates have gone up a lot in the last few years, making it harder for people with large debts. The tightening effects are set to get more intense since it takes around one year for rate hikes to be fully felt.
The Fed wants to avoid the biggest risks that come with monetary tightening. Powell warned in August that cooling inflation with large rate hikes will bring some pain to households and businesses in the form of a less attractive job market and higher loan rates. He said that it will be worth it in the long run.
Powell said that a failure to restore price stability would mean a lot of pain.