“Fingerprints” of climate change are clear in Pakistan’s devastating floods

Climate change isn't clear in this case.

It is easy to assess the influence of warming in heat waves, where hotter average temperatures push up the baseline that such hot events take off from. The group calculated how much climate change changed the odds of the Pacific Northwest heat wave last year and the recent UK heat wave.

The researchers noted in a press statement that using climate models was difficult. Some combination of the wide variability in heavy rainfall patterns over long periods, natural processes that the models may not fully capture, and the weather quirks of the territory were attributed to by World Weather Attribution. There are big differences in the amount of rain between the dry west and wet east of the region.

There are getty images of Paula BronSTEIN.

The weather records show that the region's heaviest periods of rain have become more intense in recent decades. Climate change may have increased the amount of rain during the five wettest days of the monsoon season, according to some models.

Friederike Otto is a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and one of the leaders of World Weather Attribution.

A team of researchers noted in a scientific paper that a combination of meteorological forces drove the extreme precipitation. They included a La Nia event, which cools upper ocean waters and carries more than usual rain across large parts of the world, and a hot spring and summer weather in Pakistan. It is not known how much of the flooding was caused by the melting of the glaciers.

Climate scientists warn that as the planet warms, both very wet and very dry periods will be more common. Warmer air holds more water, sucks the water out of soils and plants, and alters atmospheric pressure systems. The South Asian monsoons will become more variable from year to year in the coming decades but increase in intensity across the 21st century according to the UN Climate Panel.

Pakistan’s heaviest days of rain are likely to become even more extreme as temperatures tick up, World Weather Attribution found. That underscores the need for the country to fortify its river banks, homes, and other infrastructure to protect citizens—and for rich nations that have produced a wildly disproportionate share of climate pollution to do everything they can to help.