Satellite Data Shows How Russia Has Destroyed Ukrainian Grain

A new analysis of satellite imagery shows that almost 10 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain has been affected by the Russian invasion. One in six of Ukraine's grain storage facilities, which have a total capacity of 58 million metric tons, have been affected by the conflict.

Evidence of damage to grain silos was found by the Conflict Observatory. Concerns are being raised about crops that need to be planted soon. According to Nathaniel Raymond, a co-leader of the Humanitarian Research Lab and lecturer at Yale's School of Public Health, if Ukraine doesn't have enough storage capacity, farmers may not plant a winter wheat crop. It will be a crisis of availability if they can't store the harvest.

In order to get a true sense of the damage caused to Ukraine's grain storage facilities, the Conflict Observatory, in partnership with the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, built an object detection algorithm that was able to analyze commercial satellite imagery. The team used historical satellite images as well as images of storage facilities that had been damaged to find other facilities. Areas that were within range of missiles were the focus of the research. The researchers estimated how much grain had been destroyed.

The largest assessment to date was not able to analyze every facility, but it was able to look at 343.

Raymond says that there have been attempts to estimate the damage to the grain storage capacity in Ukraine. The amount of grain that can be stored in these facilities equates to 25% of Ukraine's grain supply.

Russia blocked grain exports from Ukraine, threatening to cause a food crisis. The UN Secretary General said in June that the war was threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution. Russia agreed to allow some of the 20 million tons of grain and other foods that had been held up in the country from certain Ukrainian ports. Putin threatened to end the deal after food prices began to fall.

Grain storage infrastructure in Ukraine is in dire need of repair. Grains and other crops need to be kept in very specific conditions in order to be safe. The length of time the crops stay good can be shortened by a variety of factors. Even minor damage to a storage structure can cause crops to go bad.