Climate tipping points, the "points of no return" past which key components of Earth's climate will begin to irreversibly break down, could be triggered by much lower temperatures. According to a new study, there are more potential tipping points than previously thought.
Climatologists define a tipping point as a rise in global temperature past which a local climate system begins to decline. Even if global temperatures fall below the tipping point, the tipping element will experience runaway effects that will doom it forever.
The idea of climate tipping points first emerged in a 2008 paper published in the journal PNAS when researchers identified nine key tipping elements that could reach such a threshold due to human-caused climate change A team of researchers reexamined data from more than 200 papers on the topic of tipping points published since 2008. If global warming continues beyond 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, almost all of the major tipping points will be gone.
Earth has warmed by more than 2 degrees F above preindustrial levels and, if current warming trends continue, is on track to reach between 3.6 and 3.4 F (2 and 3 C) above preindustrial levels.
"This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world," the statement said.
Climate change may be making the weather worse.
Two of the original nine tipping points were eliminated due to insufficient evidence, but nine new ones were found and brought to the toal, according to the study.
Tim Lenton is the lead author of the original 2008 tipping points.
The researchers calculated the temperature at which the tipping elements would pass their point of no return. The key ocean current in the Labrador Sea is one of five tipping elements that they found to be in the danger zone.
Two of the danger zone tipping points are already past their lowest potential tipping points and may be beyond saving.
If warming continues past 2.6 F, the other 11 tipping points are likely or possible.
Most major tipping points would be reached only if Earth warmed past 3.6 F, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's sixth assessment report. The new study says that the tipping points may be closer than they were thought.
The interconnectedness of tipping points is one explanation for the accelerated timelines. The fall of one tipping point can increase the likelihood of another collapsing. Climate change will cause more carbon to be released into the atmosphere. The melting of major ice sheets and coral reefs will be accelerated by this. As soon as a tipping point falls, the others will follow.
Climate change could cause humans to go extinct.
The researchers warned that it was important to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions before the chain reaction began.
Rockstrm said that to maintain liveable conditions on Earth, protect people from rising extremes, and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points. A tenth of a degree is important.
This will be difficult. To have a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 2.7 F, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030.
This goal may seem impossible given the meager progress in fighting climate change. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the federal government couldn't regulate greenhouse gas emissions.
The study authors believe that it is possible to achieve such drastic changes through a social tipping point. The scientists said in the statement that this is a theoretical threshold in public opinion that will force governments and large corporations to act on climate change.
It will be too little, too late if the tipping point is not reached before the climate tipping points are passed.
It was originally published on Live Science
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