The lure of a carrot or the threat of a stick are some of the ways in which motivation to act on climate change can come from. Scientists have been trying to get our ass into shape for a long time.
The carrot that economists are waving in front of us is getting smaller. We have to step it up to get our hands on it.
According to a new study from Oxford University, the quicker the world transitions to clean energy, the more money will be spent.
The world could save up to US$15 trillion if we are able to transition to a world of zero fossil fuels.
There's a chance that the savings won't be as lucrative if we take it slow.
Doyne Farmer says that there is a misconception that a switch to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and mean sacrifice for everyone.
For decades, renewable costs have been falling. Our research shows that they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications in the future. They will become cheaper if we speed up the transition.
The model used to forecast the costs of green technology is currently being used in the current research.
The costs of green technologies have been underestimated in the past. The cost of solar energy dropped twice as fast as projected. Humans are locked into an expensive and dangerous energy future because of the historic pessimism surrounding renewable energy.
Projections are never perfect, but the models used by researchers at Oxford were statistically valid because of the history of 50 different technologies.
The S-curve is the most successful of the technologies. There is a long phase of growth after technology takes off. The growth slows as the market gets saturated.
Once we get over the initial hill, the savings will flow.
There are three possible scenarios for that ascent.
The S shape of green energy deployment would be a tight curve under the most rapid scenario, where green energy replaces 4% of fossil fuels every year.
Fossil fuels would dominate for most of the century.
There are huge advantages to rapid deployment of key green technologies according to the authors.
Strong international policies for building infrastructure, skills training, and making investments are likely to be required to achieve this.
Government green energy policies are likely to be involved in the transition. Fortunately, these upfront costs will be covered soon.
According to the authors, the 'fast transition' scenario is expected to pay off around $5 to 15 trillion.
The authors say that when climate change is taken into account, the benefits become overwhelming. Depending on the economic parameters, the fast transition scenario could save up to $255 trillion.
Increasing scarcity in fossil fuels is one of the big factors.
The price of wind energy and solar energy is going down. Solar power is the cheapest energy on offer in many nations.
The cost of green technologies are predicted to fall over time due to the fact that we can't run these resources dry. They are doing it at a rate of nearly 10 percent annually.
The authors write that the combination of decreasing costs and rapid deployment puts green technologies in a position to challenge fossil fuels within a decade.
The models suggest that market forces are in favor of renewable energy even if climate change isn't a threat.
The 1.5 Paris Agreement target has become increasingly unlikely if agriculture and land-use change can be brought under control.
"In response to our opening question, 'Is there a path forward that can get us to net-zero emissions cheaply and quickly?', our answer is very likely, and the savings are probably quite large," the authors conclude.
It was published in Joule.
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