Russia has been tight-lipped about its latest defeats in Ukraine, and strategists fear that Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories on the battlefield.
Thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied land were reclaimed by the Ukrainians over the last few days.
The Defense Minister of Ukraine told the Financial Times he was expecting a response from the Russians. After a counteroffensive liberates territory, you have to control it and be prepared to defend it.
Russia started shelling the region on Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. It was too early to say thatUkraine had full control of the area, according to the deputy defense minister.
Putin is likely to make a decision soon, according to close-followers of the Kremlin.
Ian Bremmer said in a note that the military story for the Kremlin is getting worse. He said that it would force Putin into declaring war with Ukraine and admit that Russia is facing military problems if it continued. Russia insists that its invasion of Ukraine is not a war.
It makes Russian willingness to mete out Grozny-like 'punishment' onto the Ukrainians higher, both in terms of inflicted mass casualties on the Ukrainians through greater targeting of urban centers, as well as, in the worst case, using chemical or even nuclear weapons on the
It is escalatory if there is a likely near-term change in the war.
Russia has been put on the back foot by the recent victories of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. There are two pro-Russian "republics" located in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces are thought to have been taken by surprise by the Ukrainian attack in the northeast of the country. There were indications that Russian forces had defeated a hasty retreat.
Russia redeployed troops in the south of the country after the counteroffensive in the south of the country.
Firefighters of the State Emergency Service work to put out the fire that erupted after a Russian missile attack at an energy facility in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine. On Sunday evening, Russian invaders launched 11 cruise missiles at critical civilian infrastructures in Ukraine, strikes which were seen as “revenge” for its reclaiming of occupied land.Even ardent supporters of the Kremlin are questioning the war on state-run TV in Russia.
Everything is going according to plan. A usually pro-Putin political expert said on the state-run N that does anyone really believe that six months ago the plan was to leave the city of Balakliya, repel a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and fail to take over the city of Kharkiv?
Russia would not win the war if it continued to fight as it was, according to a former lawmaker.
Military losses and humiliation of Russian troops pose risks to Putin's regime, as domestic criticism of the conduct of the so-called special military operation is mounting from various sides, according to analysts at Teneo.
They said that Putin faces growing pressure to respond to unfavorable dynamics on the frontline, which could include either escalatory moves or calls to start ceasefire talks.
The war is dragging on and the under-supplied forces are likely to become demoralized as they come under pressure from the Ukrainian army.
Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in a note that Moscow faces a stark choice: face humiliation in Ukraine or seek peace.
Or perhaps Syrian style indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities would be an option.
According to Ash, Putin probably didn't like the mass Mobilization option because it would have put Russia on a war footing. He said that the risk was that they would return in body bags and cause unrest in Russia.
The risk of World War 3 will be very difficult to manage but where he is clearly seen, as Putin failed to pull the trigger, as he knows these are only really deterrents, and once he does unleash them, we are in a whole new ball game, risk of World War 3
He said that he expected Putin to begin serious peace talks after more attempts at bombing. Ash said that he would have to hurry up as the ground in Ukraine and possibly even Moscow was shifting quickly.
There is a chance of a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine at this point. This is the place to watch.
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