According to a new study in the journal Science, even the most aggressive goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions aren't enough to avoid several major climate change tipping points.
One of the biggest risks of climate change is that the frozen soil in the polar regions will thaw, releasing planet-warming gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the air. According to NASA, if the permafrost thaws, it would cause global warming to go up at a faster rate. The last two global climate change agreements brokered by the United Nations have set an aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, in order to stave off that type of catastrophe.
The study found that if the temperature stays between 1.5C and 2C, the permafrost may thaw permanently.
Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheets and die-off of low-latitude coral reefs are some of the risks that could be taken into account. 20 feet of sea level rise is possible if the ice sheet is completely melted. 3 to 6 feet of sea level rise from partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet is already likely to occur, according to a study done by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. A collapse of the ice sheet could cause a warm band of water that flows to the northeast across the Atlantic Ocean to become cold in Europe.
The mass death of coral reefs would deprive marine life of their habitat and destroy ocean biodiversity.
The Amazon rainforest's dieback is one of the tipping points. The Amazon is an enormous carbon sink that helps keep the temperature from rising. It could release several years of global carbon emissions. The risk that the Amazon will no longer grow back as a rainforest is referred to as dieback. According to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the Amazon may be reaching a tipping point.
Tim Lenton, who co-authored the new study in Science, said that the list of climate tipping points has grown since he first assessed them.
The lead author of the Science study said that there are signs of destabilization already in parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. There are some tipping points in the world. More tipping points are possible as global temperatures increase.
The conference was timed to coincide with the study's publication.
The world is on a course to warm by 1.5C. The world is on course for between 1.7C and 2.6C of warming according to the Climate Action Tracker. The lower number takes lofty promises of far off emissions reductions at face value while the higher number is based on the policies nations have actually adopted. The world has a 50% chance of breaching 1.5C of warming, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
It seems that even stronger action is needed to save the planet. The Science study's authors say that their research shows that.
McKay said that cutting greenhouse gas emissions can reduce the chance of tipping points.
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