US inflation data in the coming week may give the Federal Reserve mixed signals ahead of a potential third-straight jumbo interest-rate hike.
The consumer price index is expected to increase by 8% in the month of August, down from 8.5% in July but still historically high. The consumer price index is expected to rise from 5.9% in the year through July to 6.1% by the end of the year.
The consumer price index report will be released in August.
Bureau of labor statistics.
The recent data showing healthy job growth, an elevated number of unfilled positions, and resilient household spending will help shape Fed officials' views on whether to continue with another rate increase.
In recent speeches US central bankers stressed that high inflation will require higher borrowing costs that slow demand, though they kept the door open on the size of a hike at the end of their September meeting. The policy makers are in a state of darkness.
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said at a conference that they were in this for as long as it took to get inflation down. Monetary policy needs to be restrictive for a while to make sure that inflation is moving down.
The US economic data calendar has a lot of information. Reports include producer prices.
Retail sales figures will show the pace of household demand for merchandise against a backdrop of higher inflation, higher interest rates and a shift to spending on services and experiences. Excluding gasoline and motor vehicles, economists think retail purchases will go up.
“August inflation gauges will likely be very soft, but that won’t change the bottom line: The ‘totality’ of the data that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow shows few signs of cooling in the economy, and perhaps even some acceleration.”
--Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger, economists. For full analysis, click here
The country is mourning its queen and the central bank may cut rates.
Click here to read our wrap of what happened in the global economy.
The Bank of England was scheduled to hold a policy meeting on Thursday but was put off due to the mourning for Queen Elizabeth II.
The delay will give officials more time to think about the consequences of the cost-of- living crisis. Wage data on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday are predicted to show a pickup.
The policy makers of the European Central Bank will speak. Isabel Schnabel is an executive board member.
More than 40 central banks have raised interest rates in the last year.
There is a source for this.
German investor confidence on Tuesday and European industrial production on Wednesday may show how the economy is responding to being short of gas by Russia.
Swedish inflation is expected to increase by more than a percentage point. Riksbank is considering a 75 basis-point rate hike next week.
Russia's central bank is expected to cut its rates again on Friday as inflation slows.
Inflation shot up to 5.2% in Israel a month ago and will be shown in data on Thursday. The Bank of Israel believes there will be no significant decline before the end of the year.
The data will show inflation quickened to more than triple the ceiling of the central bank. The bank will make a decision on Sept. 26 after hiking the benchmark rate.
The central bank has a 9% ceiling on Nigerian inflation, which is expected to be more than doubled on Thursday. It is possible that the rate will be raised for a third time on Sept. 27.
The slide in the Japanese currency to a new 24 year low is likely to keep investors interested in the possibility of currency market intervention.
The trade balance of the world's third- largest economy will be shown on Thursday.
The central bank is expected to keep the rate the same on Thursday. The extent of damage from Covid lockdowns and power shortages will be closely watched on Friday.
Australian interest rates are expected to hit a peak this year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is mentioned in the report.
Down Under, jobs data will show how the recovery is holding up, with the Reserve Bank of Australia considering reverting to smaller rate increases.
New Zealand's economy is expected to have returned to growth as it weathers a series of half percentage rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The second quarter GDP data is expected to show a further contraction in the crisis-hit economy.
The unemployment rate in South Korea will be shown on Friday.
The year-on-year inflation rate in Argentina was just under 80% in August. A local consulting group expects a year-end reading to be close to 100%.
Inflation in Argentina is seen increasing in August.
The information comes from the Instituto National de Estadistica y Censos.
There was a sharp move down in August inflation readings in Brazil and Chile, which may be reflected in a survey by the central bank.
The data may show a bounce in core Brazil retail sales. The strong finish to the second quarter is expected to be shown in Brazil's GDP proxy data.
Brazil's economy probably started the third quarter with good growth.
Banco Central do Brasil is one of the sources.
July reports on retail sales, manufacturing and industrial production will be posted by the government in July. There will be a 55th straight month of a trade deficit.
The GDP-proxy data for July and the August unemployment print are included in the mid-month reports fromPeru. The economy lost some steam in the second quarter and is in a tough spot.
With help from Robert Jameson, Malcolm Scott, and Benjamin Harvey.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
