Failing to achieve the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C could lead to multiple dangerous tipping points, according to a major new study.
Even current levels of warming have already put the world at risk of five major tipping points and it's not too late to change course.
It will change the face of the world if you look at it from space, according to senior author Tim Lenton.
The first major research on tipping points was written by Lenton.
A reinforcing feedback in a climate system that is so strong it becomes self-propelling at a certain threshold is what these points are.
Climate observations, modeling and paleoclimate reconstructions of periods of warming in the deep past have shown that the thresholds are much lower than first thought.
A synthesis of more than 200 studies is what the new paper is about.
Nine global tipping elements contribute substantially to planetary system functioning and seven regional tipping points contribute substantially to human welfare for a total of 16.
Massive die-off of tropical coral reefs is one of the five that could be triggered by today's temperatures.
At 1.5 C global warming, four of these move from "possible" to "likely", with five more becoming possible.
Making a commitment to an extra 10 meters of global sea level is something that will take hundreds of years.
Coral reefs are already dying due to warming, but they are able to partially recover.
The 500 million people who depend on the coral reefs for their livelihoods would no longer be able to recover if the temperature rose to a certain level.
The "Little Ice Age" from the early 14th century through the mid-19th century was caused by changes in the Labrador Sea.
Abrupt thaw would amplify carbon emissions and change the landscape.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is related to sea levels on the US East Coast.
The monsoon rains in West Africa and the Sahel could be disrupted starting from 2 C.
If the temperature remained that hot for five or six decades, the worst impacts would come, according to the first author.
We're not on a runaway train situation at 1.5 C because the tipping points happening at 1.5 don't add a lot of global warming as a feedback.
He said that it's still worthwhile cutting emissions as fast as possible.
Lenton thought that human society could have its own positive tipping points, where years of incremental change are followed by urgent, widespread action.
He said that he could get out of bed in the morning by changing himself.
Agence France- Presse.
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