Marvel Now Faces The Same Problem That Challenged DC Films

I was asked about the commercial fates of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, as well as the other movies in the MCU, in a talk about the summer of 2022. The theatrical performances of those two big-budget superhero movies were good to great.

Doctor Strange 2 made more money in the US than any other movie. The films Spider-Man: Far from Home, Iron Man 3, and Captain America: Civil War have combined to make over one billion dollars. More than any other movie, it earned $340 million domestically and $750 million worldwide. Russia is currently off the board due to the invasion of Ukraine, so that loss of revenue makes the performances look lower than they otherwise would.

If you add the grosses from China and Russia, we would probably be looking at over $1 billion for Sam Raimi's Doctor Strange sequel. We would be looking at around $854 million for Taika Waititi's sequel to THOR. China's box office has artificially increased the global grosses of successful blockbusters. It made the movies look better than they already are. The loss of China put successful tentpoles on the defensive because the global grosses looked smaller.

The issue is not limited to China and Russia. There was a limit on the number of movies that featured Iron Man. The ceiling was the gross of the movie. There are two Spider-Man: Far from Home, with the ghost of Iron Man haunting every frame, was the highest grossing Spider-Man movie of all time. The MCU became a $1 billion-every-time global franchise due to this. It wasn't true before Black Panther and it wasn't true after it.

It's ironic that the MCU is facing the same inflated expectations that were faced by DC Films. Whether Man of Steel was a success at $291 million domestic, from a $128 million debut and only about 15% more adjusted-for-inflation than Superman Returns, and $668 million on a $225 million budget, is debatable. Batman v Superman only made $330 million domestic and $873 million worldwide, with poor reviews and a $166 million domestic/$423 million worldwide debut. The expectations for a superhero movie in Phase One days were much lower, with the upstart positioned as an outsider.

By earning $585 million worldwide, Iron Man could change the movie industry. In the summer of 2010 Iron Man 2 made less money than Eclipse. Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs could out-gross the superhero movies of 2011. It was the biggest non-Batman/Iron Man/Wolverine/ Spider-Man comic book movie at that time. The First Avenger earned $376 million, about the same as Star Trek and Batman Begins, but earned an extra credit for being a movie about Captain America that still made a lot of money overseas.

Man of Steel received mixed reviews and was front loaded. Even though it earned $668 million worldwide, it was tagged as a disappointment even though it was an unmitigated hit. In retrospect, it's impressive that the extent to which the company could position itself as an underestimation was so great. There was a need to show that they can succeed even though they have a xyz mentality. As a result of Disney becoming the dominant theatrical brand, they could still sell Shang-Chi and Eternals as lesser known stories.

It may have been time for that mentality to wear off. Disney had a lot of'mask off' moments. Think of their initial reluctance to criticize Florida's "Don't Say Gay" laws, turning 20th Century Studios into a Hulu content mill, and giving Lightyear a global theatrical release. The Disney+ television shows have created a sense of overload for those in the media that have to watch them all regardless of their opinion of the show. Expectations for a new MCU movie have been set out of whack due to the high grosses of Phase Three.

I don't think I'm sympathetic to Disney's MCU. They aren't David and aren't anything like him. The focus on Marvels distracts from Disney's real problems elsewhere in their theatrical and home video ecosystems. The principle is similar to a defense attorney representing a client. I am amused that the burden of unrealistic expectations that helped fell the first handful of DC Films flicks has now been shifted to the other side of the world. I am expecting big things from the movies.