Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the most sustained air-to-air combat in decades, pitting the Ukrainian Air Force's prewar fleet of roughly-110 operational Soviet-era warplanes against 1,200 fixed-wing planes.
A one-sided and short-lived contest was expected when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to many observers.
Prior to the war, the Ukrainian Air Force dispersed. The Air Force didn't sustain a lot of losses from Russia's initial air base attacks. The Ukrainian warplanes were fighting on the first day.
Ukrainian and Russian fighters continue to joust, mostly with long-range missiles, while both sides' ground- attack aviation remains active near the frontline. Both sides are unwilling to penetrate deep into enemy airspace.
—Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) August 18, 2022
There were at least 49 Russian warplanes confirmed lost as of August 30. The numbers are definitely higher. It's not clear how many fall in air-to-air combat.
The purpose of this article is to identify the losses of fixed-wing aircraft in air-to-air combat. The companion piece looks at the dynamics of the air war.
Air forces exaggerate their kills in air-to-air battles. It's worse in a conflict where gun cameras can't record a successful kill.
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on August 30 that their military had shot down more than twice as many Ukrainian fixed-wing combat aircraft as they had in the past. The downing of Russian jets is not credible.
This article mostly ignores official claims, and only looks at kills confirmed by self- reported losses, videos or photos proving an aircraft was shot down/ destroyed, and a claim the loss occurred in air-to-air combat.
There is still room for misattribution as to the cause of a particular loss.
Neither side is interested in reporting their losses. Loss data comes mainly from obituaries for pilots killed in combat. Losses of aircraft crashed on friendly territory or for which the crew survived and were not captured are not reported and therefore are under-represented.
Ukrainian pilots who died in air-to-air combat were often mentioned in obituaries. Information about air-to-air losses ceased to be published after March.
The majority of Russian air-to-air kills involved its single-seat Su-35S fighter and two-seat Su-30 SM Flankers, which are assigned air superiority missions.
Russian fighter jets have not been deployed inUkraine, but they are playing a limited role. The first kill of the type was claimed by Russian media, but there was no evidence to back it up.
The Su-57 stealth fighters have only been used for missile strikes. Air-to-air missiles can be used for self-defense, but there's not much evidence they're being armed with them.
Russian warplanes bombed Ukrainian air bases on the first day of the invasion. The following aerial losses were set in motion by this.
There is a tactical aviation brigade.
There were more encounters on February 25 and 28.
Russian air activity went up in the first week of March, with losses in southernUkraine on March 3 and 4.
Over the course of the war, at least 11 of the Su 24M supersonic bombers were destroyed. There are two attributed to Russian fighters.
On June 5, a Ukrainian Su 27P "Blue 38" of the 39th TAB crashed by what was initially billed as an air-to-air missiles but which now appears to be friendly fire due to a claim from a nearby Ukrainian air-defense battery.
—🇺🇦Ukraine_Weapons Observer (@UW_Observer) June 6, 2022
Rumor has it that a celebrated pilot of the 204th TAB died in his plane near Kramatorsk.
The cause of two Ukrainian combat losses, the Su 25 of Oleksandr Kukurba on July 26 and the MiG 29 of Yuri Pohorily, remain unclear.
It is not possible to corroborate Ukrainian air-to-air claims due to the fact that obituaries and other media accounts of Russian pilots almost never attribute the cause of death.
Every Russian aircraft loss visually documented by the Ukrainians is attributed to ground-based air defense not fighters, as far as this author could find.
Some documented combat losses in Ukraine don't have an attributed cause and some crashed Russian warplanes have been found in remote areas months after they were shot down.
The author could not find a reason for the combat losses of Russian fixed-wing jets.
Fighter Aviation Corps (FAR); Attack Aviation Corps (AAR) are the key.
It's not certain if any of these were lost in air-to-air combat, as ground-based air defenses are believed to be responsible for the majority of losses. Air-to-air combat may make aerial kills less likely to be documented.
There are other claims that are not scrutinized. There was a report of a transport plane shot down near Vasylkiv on February 25, but there was never any trace of it.
There is a video that shows a dogfight between a Ukrainian and Russian Su-25, but it only shows two Ukrainians returning to base.
—Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی (@BabakTaghvaee) March 10, 2022
Fixed-wing aircraft are not the only concern of air-to-air combat.
Russian cruise missiles have been downed by Ukrainian jets and they have also been used to hunt Russian drones. Russia says it has hunted Ukrainian drones.
Helicopters are valuable targets of opportunity for faster aircraft.
An Su-35 tried to shoot down a helicopter over the bay, but missed. A high-ranking naval officer was killed when the helicopter was shot down.
—Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 7, 2022
It's important not to draw conclusions from incomplete data.
It suggests the technical advantages of Russian fighters are working in their favor.
Both sides' aviation operations are constrained by the ground based air defenses of the other.
Russia's air force can't claim air superiority by entering Ukrainian airspace. That makes it possible for the air force to keep flying and impose costs on the foe.
Sébastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications such as The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com, and War is Boring. He was a member of the Peace Corps in China. His articles can be found on the social networking site.
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