Soil temperature can predict pest spread in crops

A new study shows that soil temperature can be used to monitor and predict the spread of the corn earworm, a pest that ravages corn, cotton, soybeans, peppers, tomatoes and other vegetable crops. The ability to better monitor the pest and make predictions about where it will appear could help farmers control the pest more effectively.

The researchers combined historical soil temperature data with long-term corn earworm monitoring data and information on how the pest survives cold conditions in a lab setting to better understand "over wintering success."

The researchers say that overwintering success can expand the areas where the pest can live and thrive. Crop damage from this pest is more likely to occur in the north. Wintering success is affected by climate change.

There is a belief that pests have little success north of 40 degrees latitude, according to a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "That may have been true in the 1930's, but now we have more data-guided evidence to ask and answer the question, 'Where can this species actually overwinter?'"

The research shows that 40 degrees latitude is not the best division for pests to live in during the winter months.

The areas are biologically relevant and supported through studies in the lab.

The researchers used the three zones to show historical trends for the corn earworm and then used a model to predict the spread of the pest. Since 1981 the southern range has grown. The southern range will double in size by the end of the century according to the models.

The paper's other co-corresponding author said that the overwintering zones are likely to shift northward.

The data show no corn earworm success in Minnesota over the course of 60 years. The entire state is shown to be in the transitional zone by the end of the century.

Huseth said that this is the canary in the coal mine. It's important for producers to understand what's happening with this pest. The element of uncertainty that can have effects on farmers is shown here. Our models show that change.

We want to come up with a better forecasting tool for this pest and a risk-prediction model in order to give growers better information about pest spread. There are costs for farmers and pesticides in the environment if success is achieved here.

More information: Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203230119. Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Citation: Soil temperature can predict pest spread in crops (2022, September 5) retrieved 5 September 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-09-soil-temperature-pest-crops.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.