Is the U.S. economy showing no signs of a downturn? Is it currently in one?
After two successive quarters of economic contraction, it still depends on who you ask.
It will take a miracle for the U.S. to avoid a recession next year according to two economists.
Richard Thaler doesn't see anything that resembles a recession in the U.S. right now, pointing to recent low unemployment, high job vacancies, and the fact that the economy is growing
Market participants are not the same as one another.
A recession is more likely than a soft landing for the U.S. economy right now according to Liz Ann Sonders.
The U.S. is not heading for a recession in nominal terms, even if it is in real terms, according to a recent interview with CNBC.
The split is reflected in recent surveys. The chances of a recession in the U.S. within a year were put at 45% by a poll of economists and 47.5% by a survey.
The discrepancy is unexplained. You can focus on GDP or the jobs market.
The U.S. GDP declined in the second and first quarters, meeting the traditional definition of a recession. There were a number of factors that contributed to the slump in growth. Personal income and savings rates fell.
In the U.S., a recession is officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The continued strength in the jobs market is what makes this time different from the others.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 in August, but it was the lowest monthly gain in more than two years.
There has been a slowdown in private payroll growth but a higher rate of new job openings than expected.
William Foster, senior credit officer at Moody's, said jobs-versus-GDP was the big debate among economic commentators, against a backdrop of the U.S Federal Reserve changing quickly from an accommodative monetary policy.
Foster told CNBC that they are coming out of an extraordinary period.
The National Bureau of Economic Research looks at real income for households, real spending, industrial production and the labor market and unemployment, but those variables aren't giving clear recession signals
He said that the jobs market is struggling to hire people.
Foster noted that households were spending at a slower rate of growth thanks to the period of household savings during the Pandemic.
At the recent Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, economist Joseph Stiglitz told CNBC he was concerned about the fall in real wages workers were experiencing.
Pundits disagree on which indicators to focus on, as well as what sectors are showing.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped into negative territory in August, according to investor Peter Boockvar.
The rental market is still growing at double digit rates. That won't cause a recession.
People have enough money on the balance sheet to buy an apartment and rent it out and make a lot of money. There is no chance of a recession happening.
Alexander Nutzenadel said there are more reasons for the current level of debate.
Predicting energy prices and political deglobalization is extremely difficult, he told CNBC by email.
The economic performance of the U.S. is dependent on external factors.
He said that the current situation of Stagflation is historically rare.
We had a similar situation in the 1970s, but this time it was difficult to find the right balance between fighting inflation and avoiding a recession.
He said that the economics profession had become more diverse.
Everything has become controversial, including theory, data and methods.
The practice of having a recession officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research has recently been questioned by a professor at the University of Chicago. We should have an objective definition.
"What really matters is paychecks aren't reaching as far" It's less relevant than you'd think.
Jeff Cox worked for CNBC.
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