If the U.S. falls into a recession, some Southeast Asian countries will be worse off than others.
The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate hikes is causing a tug of war between inflation and recession in the United States.
The U.S. has already reported two quarters of negative growth in the first two quarters of the next decade. There is no consensus on when a recession might occur.
If the U.S. goes into a recession, economists say Singapore and Thailand will be hit the hardest.
Chua Hak Bin said that Singapore is more vulnerable to a U.S. recession than its regional peers.
If the U.S. falls into a recession, he thinks Singapore will be hit the hardest. The island-state is likely to be the first because of its dependence on exports.
A chief economist at a bank agrees with an analysis
She said that she thought the more open and trade dependent Asian economies would be the usual suspects.
According to Maybank, GDP growth in the country has been more correlated with the U.S. business cycles.
Singapore doesn't have a lot of a domestic market and relies on trade services for economic growth. Shipping and cargo operations are included.
According to the World Bank, the country's trade-to-GDP ratio was 338%) for the year. The trade-to-GDP ratio shows how open an economy is.
Singapore is very dependent on external demand. The more export-oriented economies will be hit if the U.S. slips into a recession.
Singapore is connected to the rest of the world and a "shock wave" in any country will have a huge effect on the city.
He doesn't think Singapore will fall into a recession this year.
According to the Maybank report, if the U.S. goes into recession, it will be shallow rather than deep.
Chua said that the U.S. could possibly face a long-drawn recession and that Singapore may also be headed for a long-drawn recession since China is the city state's largest trading partner.
Data from the Economic Development Board shows that Singapore's electronics cluster output fell in July compared with last year.
The Semiconductor sector output fell 4.1% due to lower export orders from China and South Korea.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has terrible exports to China. Singapore is so reliant on exports that it will feel it.
Seah doesn't discount the possibility that Singapore will experience a quarter of negative growth. Economic conditions are normal for the country.
He said that we are stronger than during the global financial crisis.
If the U.S. falls into a recession, Thailand will be one of the first countries to be affected.
The economy of the country depends on tourism. Thailand's GDP was dominated by tourist spending in the year before the H1N1 epidemic. According to World Bank data, the country welcomed 40 million visitors and generated $60 billion in revenue.
The economy of the country grew by only 1.5 percent, making it one of the slowest in the region.
Chua thinks that Thailand could fall into a recession. The timing of China's reopening could determine if the Thai economy comes back "in full swing"
Thailand is in an even more precarious state due to the fact that Chinese tourists have not come back.
Thailand will continue to struggle if Chinese tourists don't come back. The growth has been weak and inflation is high.
The Thai baht is down 20% compared to three years ago, but it is still hovering at 36 baht per U.S. dollar.
The country's inflation rate hit a 14-year high in June.
Since the beginning of the year, the Bank of Thailand has only raised interest rates once.
In Thailand, headline inflation is very high, but core inflation is not as high. Maybank's Chua said that growth has been a lot weaker so they don't feel the need to tighten as much.
Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to be unaffected by a potential U.S. recession because of their domestic economies.
The Maybank report said that Indonesia and the Philippines have been unaffected by the global financial crisis.
The data from the World Bank shows that GDP growth in Indonesia and the Philippines was higher than in Singapore and Thailand during the global financial crisis.
The report was contributed to by two CNBC employees.
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