The movie business is in shambles. It likely won't be 'back' for over another year.

The movie business was expected to take a long time in recovering from the Pandemic. It's taking more time than expected.

There aren't as many movies being released. One of the largest theater chains in the US may file for bankruptcy. Warner Bros., one of the five major Hollywood studios, is shuffling its release calendar in order to save costs.

Movie theaters face a dire lack of movies for the rest of the year after a promising summer box office led by "Top Gun: Maverick." It's possible that the next hit won't be until November, when "Black Panther" is released.

John Fithian, the head of the National Association of Theatre Owners, told Insider that they don't expect movie supply to be back to pre-pandemic levels for another year or two.

Fithian thinks that people will come to the movies when they are there.

Paramount Pictures

That's been the case for some movies. "Maverick" has made a lot of money in the US. "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" is one of the franchise tentpoles. The song "everything everywhere all at once" has impressed.

There are many mid-budget, non-franchise dramas and action movies that aren't quite there yet.

There are two reasons Fithian is bullish about movie supply in the long-term.

There is a lot to figure out for the time being. "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" was pushed back from March, 2023 to December, 2023. From December to March.

According to the Hollywood Reporter, Warner Bros. Discovery wants to spread out marketing and distribution costs. Warner Bros. has two more movies coming out this year, "Don't worry Darling" and "Black Adam"

Even though theater owners have been pushing the matter for some time, Fithian doesn't think that streaming companies will get into the theatrical business for another year or two.

It will take a while, but our general sense is that we'll get more movies theatrically from companies that haven't done that before.

Sony

The US box office is expected to finish with $7.9 billion this year, with only modest growth to $8.5 billion in 2023, still down from 2019.

Despite enjoying reasons for optimism in the first half of the year, the movie industry is still in a hard reset mode, and will continue to be for at least the next two years.

In the short term, the cinema chain owned by the world's second- largest theater operator Cineworld said this week that it's considering filing for bankruptcy as a strategic option in the face of a limited film slate.

This may be a specific problem. Bigger questions facing the theatrical and film industries include whether there are too many movie theater screens for the current audience appetite.

There are 40,700 movie screens in the United States. The last pre-pandemic year has not changed that number.

Matt Belloni wrote in his newsletter that the US is overscreened. Many theaters cannot justify themselves now. Cineworld will be able to escape some of their lease obligations if they file for Chapter 11.

The MoffettNathanson analysts wrote that the US film industry is in dire need of restructuring and that they expect a drop in US screens.