Russia's economic downfall was predicted by many Wall Street analysts when Putin invaded Ukraine. They had to change their forecasts six months later.
After war broke out, there were dire warnings. The Russian ruble was cut out of international currency markets as a result of economic sanctions.
Russia's economy has held up well. There are three charts showing how.
Russia's gross domestic product is expected to fall in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, according to a report from a top investment bank. The economy would suffer its worst contraction since the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to Goldman.
Russia's GDP fell 4% year-on-year in the second quarter. GDP fell 7.4% in the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the coronaviruses outbreak.
Russia's economy has held up under the weight of sanctions according to JP Morgan.
Its strategists said in a note that available data doesn't point to an abrupt plunge in activity at the moment. The GDP profile appears to be in line with a drawn-out recession.
The economy has been supported by stronger-than- expected exports of Russian commodities. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country has been able to benefit from robust demand among its own consumers.
The International Monetary Fund said in July that domestic demand is showing some resilience due to the effect of the sanctions on the domestic financial sector.
Russia is the third largest oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia.
According to the International Energy Agency, oil and gas revenues made up 45% of the federal budget last year.
The US embargo on Russian energy imports was put in place in March, while the EU phased it out in May.
Goldman Sachs said in March that Moscow wouldn't be able to find other crude oil trading partners because it had been kicked out of the banking system.
There are no reports of increased Chinese purchases of Russian crude so far, with China not scaling up imports of Iranian or Venezuela crude in recent years.
Russia exported 7.4 million barrels of oil in July.
The purchases of Russian oil by India have been a factor. Its imports fell in June after five months of increases. It took in 1 million barrels of Russian oil a day in February.
Europe hasn't been able to wean itself off of Russian crude. The EU brings in almost 3 million barrels a day. There was 4 million barrels a day in February.
Russia's manufacturing and services sectors were going to suffer a lot as a result of Western economic sanctions.
Russia's purchasing managers index fell in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. It fell from 50.8 in February to 38.7 in March with a reading above 50 indicating growth and below 50 indicating contraction.
The contraction was broad based, with sharp drops in the output, new orders, and especially the new exports orders component. Moscow should be prepared for further decline.
Russia's index of manufacturing has risen back into growth territory.
The index went from 44.4 in April to 52.2 in July. The last reading shows that Russia's economic health is improving.
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