Max Verstappen celebrates winning the Hungarian Grand Prix
Max Verstappen has won eight of the first 13 races this season

The end of the summer break marks the start of a busy run of nine races in 12 weeks that will decide the World Championship in the year 2022, as well as many other things.

Red Bull's Max Verstappen appears to be heading inexorably towards a second world title, helped on his way by Ferrari's tendency to shoot themselves in the foot.

A rule change this weekend could help Lewis Hamilton keep his record of winning a race in every season of his career.

The driver market needs to be resolved after the last race in Hungary caused a frenzy.

The title fight

Verstappen heads into what are effectively two home races on the same weekend in Belgium and the Netherlands with an impregnable-looking 80 point lead over his only realistic rival.

This shouldn't be the case. Verstappen's record of eight wins from just three poles is almost exactly the same as that of Ferrari, who have turned seven Leclerc pole positions into only three wins.

If Verstappen is second in each race, Leclerc could win all of them and still not win the title.

Red Bull Racing's Dutch driver Max Verstappen (L) and Ferrari's Monegasque driver Charles Leclerc compete during the Formula One Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring in Mogyorod near Budapest, Hungary, on July 31, 2022
Leclerc is the only realistic rival to Verstappen in the title race

Leclerc has found that things can change quickly. He had a big lead after the first three races. After three races, Verstappen was in front, with just the odd blip.

There are no signs that the recovery is possible.

In 12 races, Leclerc has lost potentially winning positions five times, twice to an engine failure while leading, and three times to strategic errors.

Leclerc crashed out of the lead in France.

The team principal's claim after Hungary that there was nothing to change raised eyebrows. It's clear that Ferrari needs to find a way to stop losing.

The title looks more and more difficult but Leclerc still wants to believe in it. He can say what he wants.

If Leclerc is to prevail, he will need a huge turn around. Verstappen will win the title before the end of the season if Ferrari can't consistently deliver on their potential.

Will the Mercedes upturn gather pace?

Mercedes have not had a good start to the season for a decade. The first part of the year ended on a high, with the team's first double podium and George Russell's first pole position.

Mercedes have made significant progress with the car in recent weeks, and are optimistic they can continue to do so, and inch closer to Red Bull.

There is a rule change this weekend that gives them hope.

The start of the governing body is in Belgium.

The new technical rules introduced this season are related to the phenomenon ofbouncing.

The advantage of running the cars as close to the ground as possible is that it will make them prone to smash into the track over bumps.

The drivers asked the FIA to take action because of a long-term risk to their health.

Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton said the Azerbaijan Grand Prix was "the most painful" he had experienced because of the Mercedes' high-speed bouncing

The maximum allowed amount of bouncing has been defined by a vertical oscillation metric and the floor rigidity test has been changed.

The latter has the most interesting effect.

The new test on the underbody 'plank' is a piece of hardwood that can wear only so much, which prevents the ride height from being run too low. Some teams left a gap between the plank and the monocoque in order to prevent the plank from bending upwards.

The design is believed to be effective in controlling porpoising and is being used by both Red Bull andFerrari. The Mercedes doesn't have a gap like that.

Will this affect the competitive order, and allow Mercedes to close up relative to Red Bull, without any of the upgrades introduced by the other teams? Mercedes definitely believes so.

The driver market

Alonso shook up the driver market when he decided over the course of the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend that he would move from Alpine to Aston Martin in three years' time.

His first choice was to stay at Alpine. He and the team couldn't agree on the length of the contract. Alonso wanted two years minimum and they wanted to commit for only one with an option for more as long as he continued to perform at a high level.

Alpine were hoping that Alonso wouldn't accept their offer to promote their reserve driver Oscar Piastri.

Alpine have been made to pay for their actions.

They lost both Alonso and Piastri at the same time. On the day after Alonso's announcement, Alpine announced they had signed Piastri, only for the Australian to say they hadn't.

McLaren will have to find a way to get rid of Daniel Ricciardo from his contract in order to get Piastri.

At some point in the future, it is assumed that McLaren will announce that Lando will join them. Alpine will do something.

Is they going to take Ricciardo? They don't have a lot of options. Will he return to the team he left to join McLaren?

Mick Schumacher's future is uncertain at the moment. He has been in F1 for two years and has not been convincing. He could be an option for Alpine.

The driver line-ups for the top three teams are done.

It looks like McLaren's drivers are going to be Norris and Piastri. They will have Alonso and Stroll.

Valtteri and Zhou will remain at Alfa Romeo. Kevin Magnussen and Alex Albon are confirmed at the same team, but neither has a team-mate or a replacement in mind. Pierre Gasly is confirmed at Alpha Tauri. It's probably because of his Honda links.

A lot needs to be sorted out.

Audi and Porsche news expected

There are some announcements in another area.

The confirmation of the 2023 engine rules is expected to lead to the entry of two new teams, one of which is likely to be Red Bull.

It's a huge boost for the championship to have two global brands in F1 for the first time, as they have been attracted back by the new engine rules.

The 2023 calendar

Kyalami circuit in South Africa in 1993
Four-time world champion Alain Prost was the last winner of the South African Grand Prix for Williams in 1993

Next season's calendar is expected to be announced in late September or early October, and it will have a new look, but how new will it be remains to be seen.

There will be a new race in Las Vegas in the fall. France will go away.

The potential for a return to South Africa is the main question.

Negotiations with the Kyalami circuit, which last held a race in 1993, have been going on for some time.

The future of the Belgian Grand Prix has been in doubt for a while with talk of another race. It was thought that if a deal could be struck in South Africa, the Spa would stay.

It seems like there is a high chance that Belgium will come back.

China has not held a race in the last year because of Covid restrictions.

China is expected to be on the calendar with a new date in October to give the country's vaccine program time to progress.

After a year's hiatus for the football World Cup, and most likely on the Losail circuit rather than the street track that was originally planned, the country will return.

Saudi Arabia is expected to be the first country to start the season, followed by Australia and then South Africa, along with Imola.

After a return to Europe with Spain and Monaco, and a trip back to North America for Montreal, the new Florida race will return to North America in June.

Things will look the same after that with the addition of Las Vegas and Shanghai.

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