Liz Cheney has vowed to do "whatever it takes to ensure Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office"
Last week Cheney said that he was thinking about it.
A new Yahoo News/You Gov poll shows that if Cheney were to run for president as an independent, she would do the opposite.
She could change the outcome of the election.
Immediately after Cheney lost last Tuesday's Wyoming House primary to a Trump-backed challenger, the survey was conducted.
If the election were held today and it were a one-on-one re-enactment between Biden and Trump, Biden would win by 4 points.
In a three-way race with Cheney on the ballot as an independent, Trump would jump to an 8-point lead over Biden.
In that scenario, Cheney doesn't have much of a chance. Biden has a problem because almost all of Cheney's votes come at his expense and there are enough of them to put Trump over the top.
It's too early to say that Cheney is a bad guy. It is not clear if she will run or if she will run as an independent candidate. If Cheney decided to campaign against Trump in the Republican primary, she could either stay out of the race or support the Democrats.
We don't know if Biden and Trump will run again, or what the national political environment will look like in 2020.
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Cheney is more likely to help Trump win than lose.
What's the reason? Biden voters are more likely to vote for her than Trump voters are.
The daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney was stripped of her GOP leadership position after she voted to impeach Trump. She became the top Republican on the House select committee investigating Trump.
Cheney told ABC Sunday that The Great Task will be focused on ensuring that we do everything we can not toelect election deniers.
rank-and-file Republicans mostly support the former president, but they don't like Cheney's opposition to Trump. 18% of them now have a favorable opinion of her. A majority of people view Cheney in a bad light.
Democrats see the opposite as true. Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) now rate Cheney favorably, while just 18% express an unfavorable opinion, which is remarkable numbers for a lifelong Republican who was best-known, until recently, for her strict social conservativism.
When asked if Cheney should run for president in 2024, Democrats said yes and no in equal numbers. Republicans are against the idea by large margins.
The gap between those who voted for Biden and Trump in 2020 and those who didn't is much larger.
Biden supporters should be aware of what they want. In a three-way GOP primary, only six percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would back Cheney.
Her presence in the primary wouldn't affect Trump's chances of getting the nomination. With Cheney on the ballot, the former president still leads by the exact same margin.
It would probably be different in a general election. 98% of registered voters who describe themselves as Democrats and 34% of registered voters who describe themselves as independents back Biden's candidacy.
The number of Democrats who say they are not sure triples with Cheney in the picture.
Trump declined just 5 points among Republican voters and just 1 point among independent voters. Without Cheney on the ballot, a 4-point Biden lead would become an 8-point Trump lead.
More than half of Cheney's support comes from people who wouldn't vote for Biden on a two-way ballot. Trump supporters make up 15% of the total. The others came from those who were unsure.
Democrats are not the most supportive group. 42% of viewers of CNN think she should run in 2024, and 18% think she should not.
The Yahoo News survey used a nationally representative sample of 1,563 people. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey conducted by the US Bureau of the Census. The respondents were selected from the opt-in panel. There is a margin of error.
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