For 400 years sunspots have been used to measure the sun's cycle, but a new system could predict dangerous and violent solar events years in advance.
New research suggests that a'solar clock' based on the sun's magnetic field could be a more precise way of predicting dangerous solar flares.
The new framework is based on research that shows notable and sometimes abrupt changes in the solar cycle with a rhythm at each one-fifth of a cycle.
Why does the solar cycle matter?
Leamon and his team believe that despite the fact that solar cycles can vary, they still operate with a clear and predictable sequence of events.
The current method of measuring the solar cycle is based on the observation of sunspots, which have been in place for four centuries.
The solar minimum is used to determine the start of each cycle of the sun's 11-year lifespan. Leamon thinks that the method of tracking the sun's cycles is not straight forward.
Two years ago, a study was published that pointed to the existence of a phenomenon called the terminator.
There is an overlap between cycles in which the sun's magnetic field doesn't change completely. The orientation of the previous cycle has disappeared from the surface of the sun.
A sudden and rapid rise in solar activity is accompanied by landmarks in the solar cycle that are more consistent than sunspot activity. A better way of measuring the sun's cycle could be made possible by this.
The data collected by The Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory were used by Leamon and his colleagues.
We don't know how many different solar things we can see. They all have the same set of fifths.
They found that the changes happened at a fifth of the cycle. The sun's polar corona holes form at the sun's poles. The sun's last X-class flare was at the three-fifths mark.
It could take weeks to find satellites that disappear in a solar storm.
Sunspots at the sun's photoosphere are less consistent at four-fifths of a cycle. The sun passes through a terminator.
The maximum number of sunspots doesn't match when the polar field reverses, but it does happen at one-fifth of the cycle.
The landmarks are driven by the sun's magnetic field. Solar flares are a symptom of this.
Five landmarks are tied to everything. It's almost like a symptom and cause.
This would allow researchers to set a precise length of the first fifth of the cycle, and then mark the significant solar events along it.
It would help protect technologies that can be damaged by solar events, such as satellites and telecommunications infrastructure, but it could also put tighter constraints on when flares are expected.
The framework suggests that the sun's current cycle began in December of 2021.
There is a paper about Leamon's research in the journal.
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