Smoke rises after explosions were heard from the direction of a Russian military airbase near Novofedorivka, Crimea, in this still image obtained by Reuters August 9, 2022.
Smoke rises after explosions at a Russian air base near Novofedorivka in Crimea on August 9.Reuters
  • There have been a number of explosions over the last two weeks.

  • Ukrainian officials have said that they were involved in the blasts.

  • Russia isn't blaming Ukraine but it is being more cautious with its forces.

There have been a number of incidents over the last two weeks.

There were several large explosions at the Saky air base, which is 130 miles from the war's frontline.

At least eight Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged in the explosions that took place at the air base.

Russia said the explosions were caused by an accident. Evidence shows that they were the result of an attack by the Ukrainians.

Smoke fire Crimea blast
Smoke rises after a blast in the Dzhankoi district of northern Crimea on August 16.Still image from video obtained by Reuters

There was an explosion in the village of Maiskoye on August 16th. The railway and electricity sub-station were damaged according to the British defense ministry.

There is a road and rail junction in the middle of the Ukranian landscape. The major airfields on the peninsula are close by.

On the same day, smoke was seen rising from a military base. The War Zone looked at satellite imagery and found no evidence of an attack on the base.

Assuming a defensive posture

People on a beach as smoke and flames rise after explosions at a Russian military airbase, in Novofedorivka, Crimea August 9, 2022.
Beachgoers look on as smoke and flames rise after blasts at an air base in Novofedorivka in Crimea on August 9.REUTERS/Stringer

According to the Ukrainian intelligence services, Russia moved at least 24 jets and 14 choppers back to Russia or to bases deeper inside the peninsula to protect them.

It's possible that moving those assets farther from the frontlines will make it harder for Russia to use them.

The Black Sea Fleet lost its flagship, Moskva, in April, and their loss further degrades the capabilities of the fleet.

The British Defense Ministry said on August 16 that the fleet's surface ships continued to pursue an extremely defensive posture.

A satellite image of destroyed aircraft and buildings at Russia's Saky air base in Crimea on August 10.Planet Labs

Although the fleet continues to conduct long-range missile attacks against Ukrainian targets, its limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy.

A US defense official was asked about the explosions during a briefing on August 19 and said "we are seeing this overarching picture of Russian forces being more vulnerable than they thought they were and we are seeing movements of Russian forces as a result to try to protect their capabilities."

The recent incidents have caused a decrease in the sense of security for Russians in the area. Many vacationers left the peninsula following the explosions at the air base.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on August 16 that this proves that the majority of citizens of the terrorist state already know that it is not a place for them.

Crimea's importance

Crimea has been a valuable Black Sea military outpost for centuries.Google Maps

Russia's current attack on Ukraine has been supported by the peninsula.

The southern arm of the invasion captured Kherson and established the southern front. Russia has used the roads and railways of the peninsula to reinforce and replenish its forces.

The current war was preceded by the military and political significance of the peninsula.

The most developed naval base in the Black Sea is located in the peninsula. Since the Black Sea Fleet was founded in 1783, it has been a major base.

The peninsula was handed over from Russia to Ukraine in 1957. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine leased the base to Moscow, but kept control of the peninsula.

Russian warships rehearse for the Navy Day parade in Sevastopol on July 24, 2015.Pavel Rebrov/Reuters

Russia and Ukraine agreed to extend the lease until at least 2042, but Russian politicians were dissatisfied with the control of the peninsula.

"In our hearts, we know that the peninsula has always been an inalienable part of Russia," President Putin said after it was annexed.

Ensuring continuous military access was one of the main reasons for the annexation. One of the few warm-water ports in Russia, it allows the Black Sea Fleet to project power throughout the region. Russia has the ability to restrict access to the Sea of Azov if it chooses.

The peninsula has a number of ports and airfields that Moscow has been modernizing.

The recent incidents could indicate that the Ukrainians want to hit Russia in what Moscow thought was a safe haven.

Putin aboard Russian guided-missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov in Sevastopol on January 9, 2020.Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via REUTERS

The US appears to be in favor of Ukrainian attacks on Russians in the peninsula.

A senior US defense official told reporters in July that Russian forces are fair targets. There were no restrictions on striking Russians on occupied Ukrainian territory according to a senior Biden administration official.

Zelenskyy said on August 10 that Russia's "war against Ukraine, against the whole of free Europe, began with Crimeans and has to end with them."

Zelenskyy said that it is not possible to say when this will happen, but that they are constantly adding the necessary components to the formula. The Black Sea region can't be safe as long as the Russians are in control.

He works on security in Europe. He received a master's degree in European affairs from the school. You can get in touch with him on the professional networking site.

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