A new poll shows a three-point lead for the Republican nominee in the race to replace Rob Portman in Portman's senate seat.

According to the survey, 45% of likely voters in the Buckeye State would vote for Vance, while Ryan had the support of 42% of respondents.

In recent election cycles, Ohio has transitioned from a Midwestern swing state to a Republican stronghold where the party has dominated most statewide offices as well as the legislature.

Barack Obama was the last Democratic presidential nominee to win Ohio, and despite his popularity in the state, he will face a tough race in four years.

Democrats haven't won a governor's race in a long time. Ted Strickland won the election.

In the summer of 2016 he came onto the national scene with the release of his memoir, " Hillbilly Elegy", which was often cited in explaining the culture.

Tim Ryan and a construction worker talking.
US Rep. and Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan speaks with supporters during a rally in Lorain, Ohio, on May 2, 2022.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Ryan has shown strength for a Democratic candidate in a state with a GOP tilt.

More than half of the respondents had a favorable view of Ryan.

Ryan had a 15% advantage over female respondents.

Even though President Joe Biden's approval rating in Ohio was 39%, Ryan was able to stay positive with voters. The president had a disapproval rating of over 50%.

Donald Trump, who won Ohio by 8% in both 2016 and 2020, was ahead of Biden by a wide margin, reflecting the former commander-in-chief's popularity in the state.

The economy and taxes were the top issues for half of the voters in the poll.

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine had a 16-percentage point lead over his opponent in the same survey.

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.