Global warming has doubled the likelihood of a flood like the Great Flood of 1862 in California, according to a UCLA study.
The Los Angeles River was relocated from Venice to Long Beach due to monster flooding caused by 30 days of rain.
Up to 10 million people would be displaced, major interstate freeways would be shut down for months, and population centers would be submerged if a storm similar to today's happened.
The "ARKStorm scenario" of 1862 is what scientists have come to call it, according to the study.
He said there was more rain, more intense rain, and stronger wind.
The whiplash effects of a heating planet are described in the paper. Extreme aridity or the massive release of water in the form of an atmospheric river can be caused by this atmospheric "thirsty" atmosphere.
The risk of a megaflood increases as global temperature rises, thanks to a combination of new, high-resolution weather modeling and existing climate models. A long series of storms fueled by atmospheric rivers over the course of a month would affect parts of California. Some places would get more than 100 inches of rain.
The water vapor lifting over the mountains comes from the rivers.
Despite global warming, on 10,000-foot peaks you get 20-foot-plus snowAccumulations. It's all rain when you go down to South Lake Tahoe level.
According to the authors, end-of-the-century storms will generate up to 400% more rain in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
There are areas stripped of vegetation by wildfires that could be at risk of debris flows.
In extreme weather, the stability of California's massive collection of aging dams and levees is at risk.
Each degree of global warming this century is likely to increase the risk of megafloods.
The nickname "the other Big One" was given to the ARKStorm after an expected major earthquake along the San Andreas fault.
An ARKStorm event would result in a disaster zone stretching across thousands of square miles, complicating emergency response efforts and causing economic and supply chain disruptions that would be felt around the world.
The researchers are working with the California Department of Water Resources to come up with maps that will show where the worst flooding is.
Tensions between flood risk management plans and water saving projects are likely to be generated by some of their initial proposal.
Pacific-based storms that are hundreds of miles wide will present both problems and opportunities for West Coast managers of water storage and flood control.
He said that California will have to depend on potentially hazardous atmospheric rivers and floodwater in a warming climate.
According to the UCLA study, preparing for massive flooding could mean letting water out of reservoirs preemptively, allowing water to inundate floodplains and divert water away from populations.
The governor called on state agencies to prepare for a hotter, drier future with strategies such as expanding water storage and water recycling capacity.
New data shows that California will lose 10% of its water supply by the year 2040.
"Retaining as much water as we can is a good move, except that might collide with the need to prepare for catastrophic flooding."
People are focused on the risk of disasters. Catastrophic flooding has been quietly rising in the background.
He said that it would come back to bite us eventually.
More information: Xingying Huang et al, Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood, Science Advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0995 Journal information: Science AdvancesThe Los Angeles Times
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