Russian Navy Crews Are Under Orders To Avoid The Ukrainian Coast

The commanders of the Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet are afraid to send their surface warships out to sea.

It is easy to comprehend why. The ships can stay under the protection of ground-based air-defenses if they keep 20 miles from the peninsula. They are at the mercy of Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.

The U.K. Defense Ministry said that the surface vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet were pursuing an extremely defensive posture.

The four active Kilo-class submarines are the only vessels in the regional fleet that can go toward the empty stretch of the Black Sea coast.

In order to enforce a blockade, surface ships often chase down freighters and board them, but subs can't do that. The Black Sea Fleet is struggling to exercise effective sea control.

The control of the western Black Sea frees the country from having to defend against Russian amphibious attacks. Many analysts expected this to be the result of Russia's war in Ukraine.

The small Ukrainian navy was outgunned by the Black Sea Fleet, which had 40 or so major warships.

Russia had the upper hand in the air. The Black Sea Fleet was covered by several squadrons of Russian navy Su 24 and Su 25 bomber and Su 27 and Su 30 fighters.

Ukrainian commanders didn't bother fighting at sea because of the naval balance of power In the early hours of February 23, they ordered the crew of Hetman Sahaidachny to scuttle the frigate at its moorings in Odesa.

The Russians dominated the sea. They used Snake Island, 80 miles south of Odesa, as a base for air-defenses and surveillance gear and blockaded Odesa because of it.

The Black Sea Fleet was ready to land. Russia conquered the Black Sea coast and cut off the country from the sea permanently.

The tide turned on March 23, when the Black Sea Fleet landing ship Saratov was hit by a Ukrainian Tochka missile. At least one other landing ship was damaged and the Saratov was sunk by the explosion.

The Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by a Ukrainian navy anti-ship battery on April 13th.

The Black Sea Fleet's main air defense ship was destroyed by the Ukrainians. Fleet commanders pulled back the larger ships 80 miles from the Ukrainian coast in order to preserve their remaining large warships.

The rest of the Black Sea Fleet was exposed because of that. The U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russia has minimum protection in the western Black Sea.

The risk to Russian ships in the western Black Sea was compounded by the reinforcement of the Neptune battery with U.S. made Harpoon missiles. Several of the Black Sea Fleet's Raptor patrol boats and landing craft were sunk by missileers in coordination with drone operators.

The support ship Vsevolod Bobrov was sunk by a Harpoon while she was on her way to Snake Island. Russian gas platforms were struck by Ukrainian missiles. The treeless rock was rendered uninhabitable by the bombardment of Snake Island.

On May 31, the Russian garrison left the island. The Ukrainian flag was raised a week later. The liberation of Snake Island showed that the western Black Sea was safe for commerce.

Until Turkey brokered an end to the port blockade in late July, Odesa was still under blockade, but ships could now get grain out of Ukranian via canals.

Russian commanders were unable to replace the Black Sea Fleet's losses because they couldn't get Turkey to join the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The ships stayed in the range of land-based fighters and S-400 missiles.

The bases of the Black Sea Fleet were attacked by the Ukranian government.

According to a Russian source, a fire that burned to the ground as many as eight Su-27s, four Su-30s, five Su-24s, six Mi-8 helicopters and a unique Il-20 telemetry aircraft was caused by a chain of explosions.

The Russian airfield near Hvardiiske was the site of an explosion a week later. Black smoke could be seen above the military air base. It is not known if any of the warplanes that flew from Hvardiiske suffered any damage.

The Hvardiiske attack happened at the same time as a Ukrainian raid on a Russian weapons cache.

The Black Sea Fleet's warships were the first to sink. They removed the fleet's island and gas platforms. The air power that protects the remaining ships was degraded by going after its bases on land.

The Ukrainians haven't touched the Black Sea Fleet's submarines. The subs have one main role and that is to fire missiles at targets on land.

The battle for the western Black Sea was won by the Ukrainians after six months of fighting with the Russians. Without a fleet of its own, it has been accomplished.

It is a significant event. It's not just at the ocean.

The U.K. Defense Ministry said that the limited effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet undermines Russia's invasion strategy. Ukrainian resources can be diverted to press Russian ground forces.