Drastic Cuts to Colorado River Water Use Show Depth of West’s Drought

Today, the precarious status of the Colorado River was brought into sharper focus with the release of a federal study that determines how the basin's big reservoirs will be operated in the coming year.

Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico will take the largest cuts from the Colorado River to date next year because of the low water levels. Arizona's allocation will be reduced by 21 percent. No other basin state is required to limit its withdrawals under the voluntary agreement.

The seven basin states did not meet a federal deadline to present a plan to conserve between two million and four million acre-feet of water. Less than a third of the river's recent annual flow has been cut by that amount at the high end.

The federal government would apply its own remedy if the states did not act according to the commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation. The states missed the 60 day deadline.

Due to reduced releases from Powell, the river will drop another 20 feet by July 2023. The decline is more rapid at lower levels. Because Lake Powell is so low, there isn't enough supply to meet demand.

The reductions dictated by the study will be implemented even as the basin states and Mexico negotiate additional cuts.

Each month, Reclamation publishes a study that shows the levels of the basin in the next two years. August's forecast is important for two reasons. The amount of water released from Lake Powell is determined. The extent of water cuts in the lower basin states of Arizona, California, and Nevada is determined by this.

The projections are based on a scenario in which the flows would be exceeded half a dozen times. The basin's runoff has trended in the opposite direction due to dry soils and high temperatures.

The probable minimum scenario is run by the reclamation. It is not the worst case.

There will be severe outcomes by the end of the year. Six feet below the point at which hydropower generation stops is Lake Powell. By the summer of 2024, the elevation of the lake will be below 1,000 feet. The dead pool elevation is 50 feet above the surface.

These possible, daunting futures are why Commissioner Touton ordered the states to impose extraConserve.

There are accusations that the proposals are short-sighted.

The general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority wrote to federal officials about his concerns.

Special interests sought inflated payments in order to reduce water use. There was a lack of collective action to help avert the crisis.

Writing the next chapter will require water managers to convince their elected officials that sacrificing something is the only way to save everything.

This story was originally published in Circle of Blue and is now part of Covering Climate Now.