Europe’s Plan to Wean Itself off Russian Gas Just Might Work

West German politicians and gas executives signed a landmark deal with the Soviet Union in 1970. The USSR would get steel pipes from West Germany in exchange for extending a gas line to the border of the other side of the Iron Curtain. The trade deal was part of a larger policy of thaw between the USSR and West Germany that would lead to the winner of the 1971 peace prize.

The two former enemies could not have been more intertwined. By the time of German reunification in 1990, gas from the USSR made up more than 30% of the country's gas consumption. Russia supplied 40% of the European Union's natural gas by the year 2021, with some smaller countries reliant on Russia for their supplies. Russia supplied just under half of Germany's natural gas.

There were fissures in the EU's energy policy after the Russian invasion ofUkraine. After the EU imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian state-controlled energy firm decided to reduce gas exports through one of its main lines. The price of gas in Europe has gone up because the share of Russian gas in the region has gone down. In the UK, which is sensitive to gas prices on international markets, the average energy bill is expected to reach nearly four times their January levels.

Increasing dependency on Russia has been a policy failure for the EU. There are two challenges facing the Africa. If there is a cold winter with gas supplies stretched to their limit, there could be forced power cuts. Europe needs to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and strike new deals with different suppliers. Europe may find itself in a new era of energy security, no longer dependent on an unpredictable neighbor to the east, but with new dynamics that may bring their own problems.

First, the crunch. European Union member states agreed to reduce their gas demand by 15 percent over the next four years. If gas security reaches crisis levels, the EU Council warns that the measures may be compulsory. Some countries have taken steps to limit their energy use. In order to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, many cities in Germany are closing swimming pools. France and Spain have both banned shops from running air-conditioning while doors are open.

For generating electricity in power plants, for heating homes and offices, and for industries like steelmaking and fertilizer manufacture, natural gas is used. Even though there are alternatives to gas in power plants, it is hard to find alternatives to gas for industry and heating. The EU protects essential services from gas-rationing measures.