The Ukrainian military has demonstrated its commitment to winning the war by carrying out attacks far behind the Russian frontlines.
The first Ukrainian attack on the peninsula since it was annexed by Moscow took place on August 9th. There were at least six blasts at Russia's Saki air base, which is home to the 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment.
There were more blasts at the dump on Tuesday. The explosion was caused by a fire at a temporary ammunition storage site, according to the Defense Ministry.
In both cases, Ukrainian officials have said or suggested that their forces were involved, which indicates how Ukrainian forces have been receiving training from Western special-operations forces.
At least eight aircraft, including Su-30 SM fighter jets and Su 24M fighter-bomber, were destroyed in the August 9 explosions at the Saki Air Base, according to the Ukrainian government.
Russia blamed the destruction on fire safety violations and said the blasts were accidental.
The blasts were not caused by a US-supplied weapon, but by something else. The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System can reach the base if fired from Ukrainian-held territory, but the US hasn't provided it.
Some Ukrainian officials denied that they were involved in the blasts. It's not clear if the Ukrainians have a domestically developed long-range missile, but they have been working on one.
The Washington Post quoted a Ukrainian official as saying that the attack was a result of a raid. It's not clear if that claim was made to hide the actual cause.
Russia's Defense Ministry said that the explosions hit an electrical plant and power lines. A military airfield was hit by a blast.
The Guardian reported that a former senior Ukrainian official said that the country had intelligence assets in the peninsula. The New York Times reported that a current Ukrainian official said that a military unit behind enemy lines was responsible for the blasts.
The training that the Ukrainians have received from special operators with the US and other NATO militaries could be used in a special-operations raid.
The US special-operations community has led a multinational effort to train Ukrainians, which has had a crucial role in moving them away from their Soviet-era mindset and tactics.
Insider understands that during those years of training, US special operators put a lot of emphasis on operational and contingency planning.
During the war, Ukrainian special operators have repeatedly struck behind Russian lines, taking out convoys and other vulnerable targets.
There are indications that a special-operations raid is about to take place. The Russian air force's nighttime combat capability is questionable at the best of times.
Ukrainian operators may have used the cover of night to approach the base in order to surprise and outmaneuver larger conventional forces. The blasts may have been time- delayed or remotely detonated.
Small drones have been used to attack Russian installations, though that method requires the operators to remain close to the target for longer.
As the Ukrainian military seems to be gaining the strategic initiative, Moscow is scrambling to respond.
The attack on the air base could be seen as the beginning of a counteroffensive against the city of Kherson, which is north of the peninsula.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military advisers gambled when they launched a counteroffensive towards the south just a few days after Russian forces launched a renewed offensive in the Donbas region.
The gamble seems to have paid off, as Russian forces have failed to make meaningful advances in Donbas and are now moving to Kherson to meet the Ukrainian threat.
Sergii Grabskyi, a Ukrainian army reserve colonel, said that an advance on Kherson and across the Dnieper River could limit Russia's ability to maneuver.
Events will be influenced by a number of factors. The start of autumn may make operations more challenging since both Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses.
We have not studied offensive actions since 1992. Grabskyi said that they planned defensive actions. After eight years of war, Ukrainian forces are brilliant in defensive actions, but they have very limited or zero experience to conduct large-scale offensive actions.
A Hellenic Army veteran, a defense journalist specializing in special operations, and a graduate of a prestigious university are just some of the things that Stavros Atlamazoglou is.
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