‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Box Office: Tom Cruise Really Did Save Movie Theaters

Skydance's Top Gun: Maverick will be released on August 23rd, a week from today. The film will be in theaters for 90 days, although it won't be on DVD, Blu-ray and 4k HD until November 1st. It opened on May 27. Batman was released in 1989 and arrived on VHS on November 18. It was considered early, as was the release of Alice in Wonderland. There are lessons to be learned from the huge gap between the DVD date and thePVOD date. The difference between a good summer and a bad box office was made by Tom Cruise.

It is not possible to cannibalize theatrical revenue.

Paramount wouldn't be dropping it on digital next if they thought the PVOD window would cannibalize the film's still strong$6 million in its 11th Fri-Sun frame with a halfway decent shot at topping the box office this weekend or next Since A Quiet Place part II was released in the summer of 2021, a hit theatrical movie doesn't automatically drop dead when it arrives on PCOD. The streaming debut is different if more services are used by general audiences, which is why Elvis didn't premiere on Max.

The long delayed legacy sequel was supposed to have a 120 day theatrical window. He had a bargaining chip with its jaw-dropping domestic and global box office, which should make it the second highest grossing movie of all time. I argued that Cruise might be willing to agree to a 90-day window if the last two Mission: Impossible movies also get 90-day windows. The film arrives on the streaming service after 90 days, but on the physical media after 6 months, which is a sign that Cruise probably saw the numbers arguing that the concurrent revenue stream of streaming and physical media doesn't affect theatrical potential.

After an 88-day window, Spider-Man: No Way Home earned over one billion dollars worldwide and over one billion dollars in the United States. Discovery's David Zaslov claimed that Warner Bros. would emphasize theatrical revenue over streaming gains, despite the fact that the Batman pulled strong viewers. With Sony's normal-sized windows and first-window TV pay deal withNetflix, Universal's plentiful theatrical releases and concurrent PVOD revenue, and Paramount's apparent profits, Disney is the only major studio still arguably prioritizing streaming. Since opening 38 days ago, we have yet to hear anything about the premiere date for Disney+'s adaptation of the movie. Lucasfilm may be getting some breathing room.

The company wants to win the Oscars.

I think November 1 is the Paramount+ debut for the Tom Cruise-led action movie. The film's physical media debut coincides with holiday shopping for stocking stuffers and the awards season screeners being mailed out, so it makes sense that the film's physical media debut coincides with both. Paramount thinks that the film can score a Best Picture nod and a Best actor nomination for Tom Cruise, since it keeps the film in the conversation during the Oscar season. I would rather he win for that than for a picture of an old man and a young woman.

The film qualifies as aspirational, so it has a better chance of getting a Best Picture nomination than Spider-Man: No Way Home, Star Wars: The Force Awakens or even The Dark Knight. The Lord of the Rings was seen as an artistic and commercial triumph when it opened 20 years ago. By the time Harry Potter 7.2 was released in the summer of 2011, there had been enough of a turn to the action-fantasy franchise that it was seen as par for the course. The success of the movie didn't mean much because Hollywood continued to case the movie.

The studio programmers were mostly adult-skewing. It is possible to make a case for representation that will help push Black Panther over the goal line. Wonder Woman probably didn't make the cut in the year. It never felt plausible that Spider-Man would get in. It didn't help anything else in the marketplace. Contract negotiation saw Spider-Man heroes and villains interact. The artistic and commercial success was aspirational, according to Paramount. It was a star-driven, real-world, adult-skewing Hollywood blockbuster that scored with adult-skewing and irregular movie goers.

The movie theaters saved them this summer.

The film shows how Hollywood failed to create a new generation of Tom Cruise-level movie stars that would save the industry. It seemed like theaters would only be safe for high-end horror and superhero movies in the summer of 2022. The success of the film was driven by older and irregular movie goers who hadn't been to a theater in a while. It was aPassion of the Christ-level event which made it to near-Force Awakens-level success. Some of the audience showed up for Elvis, Where the Crawdads Sing and Bullet Train.

In an uncommonly sparse summer, Top Gun: Maverick provided a giant lifeline to theaters and cover for studios who underdelivered regular theatrical product. In the domestic summer movie line-up, Top Gun was the most popular. It earned over half a billion dollars more than projected. Even though the number of theatrical releases is down, the summer season is still down. Doctor Strange 2 was the highest grossing movie of all time with a budget of over $400 million. The strong earnings of Elvis and Where the Crawdads Sing show that it didn't hurt its competitors.

Had Top Gun: Maverick only made $150 million in the US, it would have been Cruise's second biggest non-Mission: Impossible grosser. The summer box office was down from the previous year. The difference between a good summer season and a bad one was made by the massive over performance. The studio created a two-month slump for us. Covid caused delays for tentpoles and studio programmers being sent to streaming due to concurrent factors. The summer movie theaters needed miracle theaters because of the reception of Tom Cruise'slegacy sequel. It had domestic and global grosses. There was a pull among irregular moviegoers. That will be miracle number three if those people stay around.