Donald Trump said there's a " really good chance" of a US-China trade deal ahead of high-level talks between the world's two biggest economies, which kick off today.
But some conciliatory gestures from both countries this week mask bigger problems ahead. Clashes between the US and China this week, Apple and the NBA's reversals on Hong Kong, and the two countries' broader relationship make a deal seem unlikely.
On the face of it, tensions appear to be softening.
China this week was reported to be open to a partial deal and has offered to buy more US soybeans. And Trump reportedly signed off on approving licenses that would let some US companies do some business with Huawei, after blacklisting the Chinese telecoms titan in May on national security concerns.
But China's negotiators intend to adopt a tougher stance and stop short of offering reforms to industrial policy or state subsidies, Bloomberg reported earlier this week.
And Trump could abruptly end the talks if he thinks China is trying to capitalize on either his possible impeachment, or a looming slowdown in the US economy.
Relations between the two nations have also soured in recent days. The US government blacklisted 28 Chinese entities - including video surveillance giant Hikvision and artificial intelligence startup SenseTime - over their alleged involvement in China's violation of the human rights of Muslim minorities.
Then there are Trump's visa bans on Chinese officials, exploration of ways to limit China's access to US capital markets, his threats to curtail US investment in China, and China's hints at retaliation.
There are signs left and right that the trade war is hammering the US, Chinese, and global economies. Trump seemingly has every incentive to get the global economy back on track.
But, in an odd twist, a deal to end the war wouldn't necessarily help the US. It might even hurt it.
In a recent episode of "The Weeds" podcast, host Matt Yglesias highlighted several reasons why the US may not want a trade deal:
Mass protests in Hong Kong are complicating the US-China trade talks.
China is keen to halt the disruption in the semi-autonomous region, but many Americans view the feud as a fledgling democracy resisting authoritarian control. A bill intended to defend Hong Kong's freedoms and combat Chinese overreach is moving through Congress. Trump could alienate the Chinese if he signs it.
After criticism from Chinese state media, Apple this week pulled an app that Hong Kong demonstrators use to track police activity, the Wall Street Journal reported. It can hardly afford to alienate the Chinese government - Apple got $52 billion, or a fifth of total sales, from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan last financial year.
And then there's the NBA, reeling from Chinese fury over comments made by Houston Rockets' general manager Darly Morey supporting protesters in Hong Kong. China suspended broadcasts of NBA games, while Chinese companies piled on, slamming Morey or halting business with the league, according to Bloomberg.
Apple and the NBA's differing approaches are emblematic of the US-China relationship: America is constantly walking the line between deferring to the Chinese government to keep it on-side and maintain access its markets, and defending its core values of free speech and democracy at the risk of provoking swift, broad backlash.
The US government doesn't want to return to the status quo before the tariffs, while China is reluctant to change the policies that have allowed its economy to mushroom in recent decades, simply to satisfy Trump's demands. The two nations' fundamentally different goals - combined with recent spats, complex politics, big egos, and enormous stakes - mean a deal to end the trade war remains a long shot.
Read more: Everyone has forgotten about why Donald Trump can't win a trade war with China