A sabotage and information operation campaign helped the Chinese military land on the shores of Taiwan. The US was caught off guard by another global crisis.
The United States doesn't have all the weapons, units and ships it needs for this fight. There isn't a magic bullet that will solve this invasion in a day or two.
The players in the air conditioned offices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies gathered around the conference room tables. There was a map of the Pacific region laid out in one of the rooms. The Chinese military view of the conflict is shown beside this map.
There is a map of Taiwan in a room and red forces are in control of it.
Various retired military officers, think tank experts and other government officials have participated in a week of war games. The result will be an extensive report later this year from CSIS analyzing the outcome of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States is involved in all but one of the versions.
Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT's Center for International Studies and a former marine, is one of the game umpires. Mark Cancian is a CSIS senior advisor.
Japan was involved from the beginning of the variant. The Philippines allowed some iteration of the U.S. base. Some U.S. strikes on mainland China were allowed.
During the week, the game reaches a point where the players know the likely outcome, and it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between the U.S. and Chinese.
Chris and Daniel were on the U.S. team on August 5. He was a senior advisor to the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.
The China team consisted of a retired Marine colonel and a professor from the school of advanced international studies.
Nancy Pelosi ended her trip to Taiwan days before the war games started.
The officials of the People's Republic of China called Pelosi's trip a provocation. The Chinese government considers Taiwan a part of China and fights attempts to officially recognize Taiwan's independence.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that China would take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty.
Multiple players in the Aug. 5 iteration told Military Times that the variety of games gave them a robust data set. It is possible to look at what it will take to counter China's ambitions for Taiwan in the future.
What value would an old-fashioned map, game pieces and a fistful of 20-sided dice provide in an age of data mining, machine learning and seemingly endless computer-run simulations?
It helps you get a better idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S.
Hearing from experts on air, land and maritime assets and challenges gives players a better understanding.
It helps shape your way of thinking.
In this not-too-far-off scenario, four players are fighting in an operation that could have catastrophic consequences. The time of game play is important.
Mark Cancian is a former Marine officer, game co-designer and umpire. The World War II island of Okinawa took two months and three weeks to complete, and is not that large. There is a lot of chatter on the internet. It would take months for China to take on the Taiwanese.
The players lost an aircraft carrier on the first US turn. The United States lost 700 aircraft over three weeks.
The United States prevailed in all of the versions.
War games once dominated the discussions, but fell to a low point in the early 2000s In 2015, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and former deputy secretary of defense wrote a paper calling for a renaissance in war gaming.
Wargaming helped the U.S. and its allies prepare for World War II and the Cold War, according to the paper.
The Marine Corps has used wargaming to run hundreds or even thousands of scenarios. Many of the major decisions the service has made in the last few years have been driven by that data.
The changes included changing the structure of its infantry rifle squad.
Those decisions caused controversy. A group of retired Marines argued that the decisions were too radical. They wanted to know what the simulations led to.
The defense press is asking the same question. The service's leaders said they've performed but stopped short of revealing much.
The moves have been criticized by Cancian. The value of the think tank exercise is that it can be public.
The Marines are planning for a war with China and are experimenting with new weapons systems.
The assumptions are what are asked. The MLR is located somewhere. Cancian made a statement. That information is important for analysts, journalists and the public to understand better.
Cancian said that the Marines said it was all classified.
In the war game, some of the assumptions are tested.
The Philippines and Japan have allowed the United States to use their airspace, though they haven't entered the conflict.
It is nice to have a place to work from. The distance is difficult
The Naval Strike Missile can only shoot at 100 nautical miles.
The missiles couldn't hit the Japanese island of Yonaguni, even if the Marines put all their fires there.
It is useless if I am not on Taiwan.
There are a lot of Chinese ships around Taiwan once the conflict starts. The Amphibious Ready Group was sunk two times by the Chinese military. The MLR ran out of supplies twice when it got onto Taiwan.
War games are used by The Mitchell Institute to see if there are gaps in capabilities or assets.
Rice, a career-long China expert who now focuses on airpower for the institute, told Military Times that bringing that kind of data to the discussion with a service or Congress can give weight to arguments for resources.
The U.S. aircraft carriers were too vulnerable during the war game. The whole operation may be dependent on securing a beachhead.
Rice said, "You might think you're shored up on the Marines rolling this, but we ran the war game and every single time no marine made it to the beaches of Taiwan."
Special invited experts with classified clearances are usually invited to play in war games. Even low-level strategic thinking can benefit from strategy games such as "Axis & Allies" and military-made educational tools.
The games help military members work through small pieces of conflict and bigger picture views of how to integrate.
War games are important because they allow you to experiment with new ideas in a peacetime environment.
The players ran their game for more than an hour and went through major moves, assumptions and outcomes.
The carrier died on the first turn.
Mark Cancian agreed.
The war games taught Mark Cancian that a deterrent is also a target.
The China team lost too much and took too many strikes on their ports and supply chain to keep fighting.
The Chinese team had more than 30 battalions on Taiwan by the end of the game.
The U.S. was able to cut off the Chinese supply completely, leaving thousands of Chinese soldiers without food, water or medicine.
The time frame aided in showing real-world considerations. The United States takes a lot of losses and the end looks bad. Once the U.S. gets its forces flowing into theater, the result is almost un changeable.
The players put the doomed aircraft carrier too close. It was hightailed out of Chinese weapons ranges by other carriers, but they were not able to provide support.
Japan lost a Surface Action Group and other equipment in the battle. Three Surface Action Groups were lost by the United States.
The Chinese military took a lot of hits, including 51 amphibious ships, 58 major combatant ships, seven surface action groups and many more air and fires assets.
It could get worse if the game ended before the fight was over. Long-range fires and precision targeting limited the historic losses.
Cancian said that it would be different when you have to get in close. We are going to throw rocks at each other.
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