There is a new number Taking that translation with a grain of salt is what I'm going to do. The number of earned runs Dylan Cease has given up in his last fourteen starts is the same as the string of numbers.
Cease is 8-3 in that stretch with a 0.66ERA, 11.3 K/9,.171 BAA, and 1.05 WHIP. I was going to write an article detailing how Cease was able to maintain this level of dominance. The more I looked at them, the less they made sense.
Wait, I'm not sure. He has lost three times despite giving up one or fewer earned runs.
How bad is his control if he is holding opposing hitters to a.171 batting average, yet he is still allowing 1.05 walks and hits perinning?
Fourteen games is the longest streak since 1913 for pitchers allowing one or fewer earned runs.
Right now, those frightening thoughts are in your head. I am here to make sure that they are both valid and accurate.
Over the course of 14 starts, only one other pitcher has allowed less than six earned runs. It has never been duplicated in a single season. Jake Arrieta did it three times in 23 starts from July 30, 2015, to May 3, 2016 He had his best 14-game stretch in that time. In that time, Arrieta went 13-0 with a 0.715 WHIP and 103 strikeouts, and only three home runs allowed.
Cease's streak is worse than every single stat I mentioned. There are significant differences between the two. Cease has surrendered 16 runs over the course of Arrieta's best stretch, meaning that 10 of those runs have been mishandled.
You might think that he is not to blame. You are correct that he can't control what his defense does He can't That is the reason why runs are a thing. Cease is the one who comes in. Cease has walked 36 batters, twice as many as Arrieta did, during the 14 game stretch.
Cease has a tendency to put runners on base. Cease has given up at least one baserunner in 53 of the 82 he has pitched. That isn't a complete baserunner. The number of times he has allowed a baserunner is only a small part of the total. Do you think that number is higher than you think? Cease's stretch falls apart statistically when it's probably.
He can't control how his defense plays, but that doesn't mean those runs are solely on the defense. Cease did not allow a run in his July 17 start against the Twins. Two mistakes were made by the White Sox. The Twins couldn't get on the board. Cease starts against the Dodgers on June 9.
Jake Burger made an error in the fifth that could have ended the rally. The bases were empty. Cease hit the next batter. Cease would not be able to give up any runs until the end of the game.
Cease proceeded to give up three straight hits (two for extra bases), then walk two batters, then throw a wild pitch. The three batters that weren't on base scored. Cease was unable to record a single out for five straight hitters. I think it's more on him than the goose egg under the earned runs column suggests.
In the last 100 years, there have been 65 14-game stretches where a pitcher started all of the games. Between parts of the 1982 and 1983 season, Cease allowed the most runs in a single season. Cease is the only pitcher on the list to have a WHIP over 1.0 during their streak.
Cease's streak has been impressive. Cease is making a name for himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Cease's situation has been obscured by the lack of earned runs. Cease has flashed an impressive array of pitches, but he also has some serious control issues that make it hard for him to pitch out of the stretch and put him in dangerous situations.
Cease has a 0.66 earned run in his last 14 outings. The figure is awesome. He has aFIP of 2.76 and an expectedFIP of 3.28. It's bad when your defense makes an error that allows the other team to score two runs. You can't fault the pitcher for that, but why were the runners on first and second? If you have put yourself in a position to be let down should your teammates make a mistake or your opponent get lucky, then you have not put yourself in a good position. Let's not pretend that Cease is the next deGrom.
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