Russia's economy has been affected by the war in Ukranian.
The first contraction in a year is expected in Russia's GDP in the second quarter of 2022, according to 12 analysts. The April to June period was the first full quarter since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia's economy contracted 4.3% in the second quarter, according to the central bank.
Russia's economy probably lost four years of growth, returning to its size in the second quarter. Russia's economy was worth over $1 trillion in both of the last two years.
Russia's economy grew in the first three months of the year.
The contraction in Russia's economy in the second quarter was much less than anticipated. The country's economy was expected to contract between 9% and 10%, according to analysts.
A report from Yale University accused the Kremlin of cherry-picking data to present a favorable view of the country's outlook.
In June, analysts told Insider that the Kremlin had moved to cushion the impact of the trade restrictions.
The contraction is expected to slow into the fourth quarter with the monetary policy loosened. Russia's GDP is expected to decline in the third quarter, according to the Bank of Russia.
Thanks to a global supply squeeze that is boosting prices, Russia's energy exports are holding up. Russia is producing more oil than expected, according to a report by the IEA. Russia produced more oil in July than in May and June.
As the European Union prepares to ban crude oil imports from the end of 2022, the Kremlin is looking for alternative markets for its energy products. The bloc has banned coal imports. Europe is trying to wean itself off of Russian natural gas.
According to the Yale report, Russia's revenues are likely to be impacted by hard bargains in markets like India and China.
Russia's crude oil production is likely to go down by 20% in 2023 due to the EU embargo, according to the IEA. The ban will cause Russia's economy to shrink by two percentage points, according to Isakov.
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