A Russian base in occupied Crimea, far behind the front lines of the ongoing war in Ukraine, was damaged by multiple large explosions this week, which left not only physical damage to buildings, planes, and personnel, but likely psychological damage as well.
There were no injuries or damage to the aircraft stationed at the base, according to Russia.
Satellite images of the Russian base show that a number of Russian planes were damaged or destroyed.
—Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 10, 2022
The Saki Air Base, which sits alongside oceanfront resorts popular with Russian tourists, has not been officially claimed responsibility for the explosions.
Ukrainian officials have told the media that they were responsible for the attack.
—Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2022
It's not clear how Ukraine could have been involved in the blasts.
An unnamed Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post that the attack at the air base was carried out by special forces, while a Ukrainian presidential advisor said it was the work of ranged weapons or local partisans.
A US official told The Post that it appeared that Ukraine had used a long-range weapon but not one provided by the US, which has been hesitant to provide capabilities that would allowUkraine to strike Russia.
The New York Times quoted a Ukrainian official as saying that the explosions at the base were caused by a device made in the country.
Jeffrey Edmonds, an expert on the Russian military and a former CIA military analyst, told Insider that he didn't think it was an accidental shooting.
He said that the Ukrainians had been working on a short-range missile.
The Hrim-2 is a missile that is being worked on by the Ukrainians and is estimated to have a range of hundreds of kilometers. It's not clear if that missile is still active.
It would be my bet. He said it is a high level of precision. They hit where the plane was.
The amount of partisan activity is unknown, and a special-forces attack on the installation would probably have involved destroying military aircraft and structures with charges, causing damage different from what was seen in the satellite images.
The psychological effect on the Russians is more important than how the attack was executed.
The blasts let the Russians know that they are safe, according to a Ukrainian official.
According to The Post, a former Ukrainian defense minister and head of the Center for Defense Strategies said that they are not impervious. They can't feel safe in the peninsula. They thought they were safe at long range, even though they weren't.
"The psychological impact of this is much larger than the damage to the military base or the loss of some Russian aircraft," he told Insider.
Russian forces have struggled to achieve President Putin's objectives in Ukraine due to mistakes early in the war and fierce resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces which derailed Russian efforts to take the capital and forced Moscow to concentrate on the east. The counteroffensive by the Ukranian is already underway.
The officials said "you can say this is it" when asked if the explosions at the Russian military base were the start of a southern counteroffensive.
The senior Ukrainian defense official told Yahoo News that things are just getting warmed up.
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