Daniel Patrick Moynihan was an adviser to President Richard Nixon. The increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by burning oil, gas and coal. Mr Moynihan said goodbye to New York. It's time to say goodbye to Washington.

Congress is on the verge of responding to the problem of carbon dioxide.

Senate Democrats passed a bill on Sunday that would move the country away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy. If the House passes the legislation later this week, it will be the nation's first major climate law, coming as scientists warn that nations have only a few remaining years to make deep enough cuts in carbon dioxide to avoid planetary catastrophe.

It wouldn't avert the worst impacts of a warming planet, but it would be the largest climate action ever taken by the US.

Former Vice President Al Gore, who as a lawmaker held the first congressional hearings on the subject in 1982, said, "Now we have crossed a major threshold." I did not think it would be this long.

In interviews, Mr. Gore and others pointed to several reasons that a climate bill is about to become law at last.

All said that the incontrovertible evidence that climate change has already arrived has helped build political support. The strategy of oil, gas and coal companies to spread doubt about the seriousness of climate change has been overwhelmed by the sheer volume of real-time data.

ImageA black-and-white image of Richard Nixon and Daniel Moynihan outside on a summer day in Washington, with the Washington monument in the distance.
President Richard Nixon and his advisor Daniel Patrick Moynihan in 1970.Credit...Associated Press
A black-and-white image of Richard Nixon and Daniel Moynihan outside on a summer day in Washington, with the Washington monument in the distance.
ImageSteam billows from a single tall smokestack of a power plant.
The Somerset Operating in Somerset Company in Somerset, N.Y., was the last coal-fired power plant in the state when it closed in 2020. Cheap natural gas has helped to speed the decline of coal. Credit...Libby March for The New York Times
Steam billows from a single tall smokestack of a power plant.

They pointed to a shift in strategy that swapped the most efficient way to cut carbon dioxide emissions, a tax on pollution, for monetary incentives to industries and consumers to switch to clean energy. Lawmakers replaced the sticks with vegetables.

The carbon tax has proven to be a toxic mix of politics and economics according to William Nordhaus, who first conceived of the tax as a young economist at Yale University. Subsidies are more popular with the elected than the other way around.

The United States will no longer add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by the year 2050 according to Mr. Biden. Scientists say that all major economies need to limit average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels. That is the point at which the likelihood increases significantly of disasters. The world has warmed by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius.

It will be difficult for the United States to meet its net zero goal without a price on carbon pollution.

The dream of people who want to be good custodians of the planet for decades has been a carbon tax. The reality of American politics is that you give out money to encourage innovation. It won't be enough to reach the goal. It is still the largest thing the US has done on climate change.

After Mr. Moynihan wrote a memo to the Nixon White House, Mr.Nordhaus came up with an elegant solution.

Climate change made headlines in the late 80's. James E. Hansen told a Senate committee that global warming had begun. The Senate subcommittee chaired by Mr. Gore heard testimony from Dr. Hansen in the next year.

A carbon tax was promoted by Mr. Gore as vice president.

The bill was attacked as an energy tax by Republicans after it passed the House. The Republicans won control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 60 years after promising to lower taxes and reform the government.

Paul Bledsoe, who was a Senate staffer at the time, said that Clinton and Gore made the House vote for the thing even though it was suicide. Climate politics were put back in motion by that. It was a huge blow to the country.

ImageJames Hansen, with a look that might be of concern, speaks into microphones in a Senate hearing room.
James Hansen testified before a Senate subcommittee in Washington in 1989.Credit...Dennis Cook/Associated Press
James Hansen, with a look that might be of concern, speaks into microphones in a Senate hearing room.
ImageHarry Reid and John Kerry walk through very tall doors of a Senate building, held open by an aide.  There is a fire extinguisher in a glass case at left.
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, right, then the majority leader, and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, center, after a news conference on climate and energy on Capitol Hill in 2010.Credit...Luke Sharrett for The New York Times
Harry Reid and John Kerry walk through very tall doors of a Senate building, held open by an aide.  There is a fire extinguisher in a glass case at left.

President Barack Obama tried again with a "cap-and-trade" bill. It would have placed a cap on the amount of carbon dioxide pollution that could be released each year and forced industries to pay for permits to pollute.

It was the same history. Republicans labeled the bill an energy tax after it passed the House. The Senate never took up the bill because they couldn't get enough votes in their own party to approve it.

The majority leader of the Senate told Senator Whitehouse in July of 2010 that there wouldn't be any further attempts to move climate legislation.

Mr. Whitehouse said that Mr.Reid told him that the Democrats didn't want any more conflict.

Mr. Whitehouse said the aftermath was long and sad. He began speaking from the Senate floor in 2012 to warn about the dangers of global warming.

He said that they were not going to stop talking about climate change.

The president enacted regulations to reduce carbon dioxide pollution from cars and power plants after Democrats lost control of the House.

Some Republicans were not sure if human activity was causing climate change or if the planet was warming at all. In February 2015, Senator James Inhofe held up a snowball on the Senate floor as proof that global warming was a lie.

President Donald J. Trump weakened emissions standards in order to demonstrate the fragility of executive action.

Efforts to address the climate crisis on Capitol Hill were stalling.

Powerful storms causing death and destruction, a megadrought threatening water supplies, and dangerous heat waves taxing electrical grids are all signs of climate change.

The National Climate Assessment detailed the economic cost of climate change, from record fires in California to crop failures in the Midwest. Over the past five years the United States has experienced 89 weather and climate disasters with damage of more than $1 billion each, costing the nation a total of $788 billion. Last summer was the hottest on record in the contiguous United States, but this summer is on track to be even hotter.

Republicans stopped denying the planet is warming and started objecting to climate action because of economic reasons.

ImageA damaged, graffitied boat sticks nearly straight out of the ground in the foreground, which is clearly a dried out lake bed. In the middle distance, the shallow, receding waters of Lake Mead.
A once-sunken boat on what used to be the bottom of Lake Mead in Nevada. Water levels are the lowest since the reservoir was first filled in the 1930s.Credit...Mario Tama/Getty Images
A damaged, graffitied boat sticks nearly straight out of the ground in the foreground, which is clearly a dried out lake bed. In the middle distance, the shallow, receding waters of Lake Mead.
ImageAn elevated view of emergency vehicles driving through floodwaters of a flooded street.
Flooding following torrential rain in Florissant, Mo., last month.Credit...Michael B. Thomas for The New York Times
An elevated view of emergency vehicles driving through floodwaters of a flooded street.

The coal industry has been weakened by the falling cost of natural gas. Environmentalists formed alliances with groups they had fought with before. Climate change is a threat to polar bears and coastlines, as well as an opportunity for the US to develop a new economy without fossil fuels.

The senator from Hawaii fought back tears after the vote. It was not possible to build political momentum by catastrophizing. We tried to answer the question, "What's in it for me if we take climate action?" as a farmer, surfer, and blue collar worker.

President Biden compared climate action to jobs when he won the White House in 2020, in part due to a record turnout of young, climate-minded voters.

The limits of what was possible were determined by Joe Manchin III, the Democrat from coal-rich West Virginia and a crucial swing vote in the Senate.

As Democrats tried to advance a broad spending bill that would include climate provisions, senators tried to put a price on carbon. Electric utilities that replaced fossil fuels with clean sources of energy would have been rewarded and those that didn't would have been punished. The provision would have allowed the US to meet Mr. Biden's long-term climate goals.

The plan was turned down by Mr. Manchin.

The leader of the Senate Finance Committee said that sticks weren't working. That was the end result.

Mr. Wyden designed billions of dollars in tax incentives for zero emission energy sources such as wind, solar and nuclear.

The West Virginian's vote was not certain. After walking away from negotiations last winter, Mr. Manchin had to face an onslaught from Democrats and administration officials trying to win him over.

ImageRon Wyden and Joe Manchin sit at a Senate dais.
Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, left, and Senator Joe Manchin III.Credit...Sarahbeth Maney/The New York Times
Ron Wyden and Joe Manchin sit at a Senate dais.

The chairman of the Senate Environment Committee reminded the man of his roots. Mr. Carper said that Mr. Manchin's wife used to shop at a store owned by Mr. Carper's family. Haaland and Granholm traveled to the state. Brian Deese, the director of the White House National Economic Council, went zip lining with a West Virginia senator near the New River Gorge National Park and Reserve and then ate at a park lodge.

Two weeks later, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York announced a surprise agreement with Mr. Manchin.

There is a fee for excess methane in the final bill. Legislators abandoned a carbon tax. Most Democrats think it's a critical first step.

Tina Smith is a Democrat from Minnesota.

There is a better world out there. The cap-and-trade bill was written by Senator Edward J. Markey when he was in the House. It is not everything we want but it is a historic victory.

The Biden administration is expected to issue new regulations to curb carbon pollution from power plants, automobiles and oil and gas wells. Mr. Whitehouse said they hope that Congress will approve a carbon tax, noting that a few Republicans, including Senator Romney of Utah and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, are willing to discuss it.

In front of the same green sign that has served as a backdrop to his soliloquies for a decade, Mr. Whitehouse gave his 300th Senate floor speech on the climate crisis. He has no intentions of stopping despite witnessing the passage of major climate legislation. He said that they were not on a path to safety.

Mr.Nordhaus was in agreement. He said that a journey begins with a single step. We are in for a fiery future if this is the final step.