We Are Not Freaking Out Enough About Climate Change

A new research paper warns that the concept of climate change ending human existence is a dangerous topic. Climate change is going to be bad, but we are completely unprepared for the worst-case scenarios.

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge wanted to develop a rationale and scientific foundation for researching climate calamity: the question of whether climate change could result in global societal collapse or even human extinction.

Kent and his co-authors argue that a lot of media and policy attention has been focused on the effects of warming up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) past pre-industrial levels.

Kemp said there are a number of reasons for this. The goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep the temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius in the best-case scenario. Kemp said that scientists shy away from sounding alarmist in order to keep the attention of the public. The impacts of more extreme climate change and complex risks are more difficult to study than the effects of a small degree of warming.

The focus on less-catastrophic impacts is being reflected in climate research. According to research published by Kemp and some of the authors of this paper, only a small percentage of the mentions in the latest report deal with the impacts of climate change that could happen if temperatures reach above 2 degrees Celsius by the end of century.

Kemp said that climate change scenarios are under explored. Risk assessments are not suitable for thinking about extreme risks. We arebetting on the best case.

The signs point to us being able to avoid the types of disasters outlined in the report. If all nations stick to their pledges under the Paris Agreement, we will be able to avoid 2 degrees of warming, according to the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The worst case is that we don't meet the targets. States that are politically vulnerable share a similar overlap with areas that have the potential to see extreme heat. The four horsemen of the climate change end game are disease, famine, extreme weather, and global conflict. The paper states that the four factors could be worsened by other climate impacts, like sea level rise.

The paper was published in the Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Science. One of the worst-case scenarios would be a large-scale nuclear war because of climate change. The survivors face accelerated warming after the nuclear winter has ended. It was good to cheer!

It seems like alarmism to throw around these scenarios, but the team believes it is better to be prepared. The paper shows how the idea of nuclear winter galvanized public opinion in the 1980's. We might be able to work harder to avoid extreme warming if we knew the risks.

Kemp said there was no alarmist about looking at extreme risks. We do it for crashes of cars and planes. Good risk management and science can be found here. The alternative to marching blind is not very smart.