The largest shield volcano on Earth, and dominating the landscape of Hawaii, has been active for at least the last 700,000 years.
Researchers in 2021 were able to model the flow of magma on the inside of the volcano, as well as figuring out what would and wouldn't be likely to cause the next big eruption from the volcano.
A large earthquake would be likely. The conclusion is based on the fact that there has been an influx of magma in the last two years.
An earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater would relieve the stress caused by the influx of magma under the western flank of the volcano.
There is a chance that this earthquake could cause an eruption.
According to the scientists, 0.11 square kilometers of new magma flowed into a new spot in the volcano chamber over the course of two years.
These kinds of body changes have never been measured before. The shape of the volcano can be changed by lava flows and ground shifts along the fault.
Changes in the flanks caused by magma injections can make a big difference in the volcano's behavior, as they are closely related to flank activity.
Amelung said that an earthquake could be a game-changing event.
It would break the rock above the magma by releasing gases and generating additional pressure.
The data shows that the mountain is under a heavy load.
A lack of movement under the volcano's western flank makes the researchers think that an earthquake is possible.
In 1950, lava from a Mauna loa eruption reached the coast in three hours. Both the 1950 eruption and 1984 major eruption were preceded by earthquakes.
Predicting the timing of eruptions is not easy, with a lot of variables and estimates involved, but careful magma mapping strategies can provide valuable data for future modeling.
Amelung thought it was a fascinating problem.
The magma body has changed over the last six years. Better models to forecast the next eruption site will eventually be led by this observation.
The research was published in a scientific journal.
There was an earlier version of this article.