When combined with the previous threats from Libya, the tendency of authoritarian regimes to learn from one another is of concern. Libya, long a preferred jumping-off point for refugees and other migrants seeking to reach Europe from the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, will likely be a destination for many fleeing famine in the Horn of Africa. Security researchers have warned of the possibility of Russia using control over the Libyan migration route to force the EU into changing its policies.
If migrant numbers swell in response to food shortages, it is highly likely that Russia will attempt to use the threat of a new migration crisis on Europe's southern flank. A new influx of refugees could distract from the conflict in Ukraine and draw attention to the cost of supporting existing Ukrainian refugees in Europe. They could cause EU resolve to be disrupted and the unified opposition to the invasion of Ukraine to be cracked. Russian state media has been transparent about their intentions to leverage the looming crisis, with the editor in chief ofRT stating on Russian state television that "all our hope is pinned on famine."
The existence of large refugee populations doesn't guarantee a crisis. The public needs to be primed through narratives of threat. We have the ability to interrupt these campaigns.
Prebunking is one of the most effective techniques. Prebunking, like the more commonly known strategy of debunking, seeks to curtail the spread and effectiveness of misinformation. Prebunking works to counteract false claims before they happen. It makes prebunking much more effective as it is much harder to refute once it has been accepted.
Prebunking works by introducing a weakened version of the false claims that people are likely to encounter. Prebunkers could point to the ongoing risk to individuals in conflict zones and the true motives for fleeing.
The technique can be used in a variety of media, from billboards to pre-roll video advertisements, and has been shown to be effective against false narratives.
Proactively protecting the information environment is essential not only to counter Russian efforts to break opposition to their assault on Ukraine, but also to ensure the safety of vulnerable refugees, both of which are likely to emerge from the looming famine. In May, locals told me that rumors had begun to circulate that Ukrainian women were stealing Polish men, and that the economic costs of supporting the displaced population were beginning to mount.
The most immediate threats are to the refugees who will be forced to flee famine in the weeks and months ahead, the obstacles to their safety that Russian interference and disinformation campaigns represent, and the potential for these campaigns of fear to crack NATO's unity. We need to act now to counter the threat narratives that will emerge in the near future.
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