Released in May, this was the NOAA forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.
Enlarge / Released in May, this was the NOAA forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022.

The Atlantic Hurricane season is one third over. There is some positive news to report.

There have been three named storms in the Atlantic. Three named storms before the beginning of August is usually a busy start to a season that lasts six months. A storm count is not a true measure of activity.

None of these storms exceeded the strength of a tropical storm. The Atlantic is not having a great start. An average year produces nine days of tropical storms or hurricanes at the beginning of August. The number of named storm days is down this year. The Atlantic basin is only producing about 30% of its normal activity due to the measure of "accumulated cyclone energy."

Colin was the last storm to form before it dissipated. This would be the fifth time in the last 30 years that no tropical storm formed between July 3 and August 3.


It's probably best to ignore this season's slow start. The pattern so far is consistent with expectations. Tropical waves are not waves in the ocean but rather low-pressure systems in the atmosphere, and they roll off of Africa before the season starts. They can develop into tropical systems by using the sea's water to make storms.

Favorable conditions for the development of tropical waves, including warm seas, low wind shear, and a lack of Saharan dust, don't align for hurricanes until August. It looks like we'll see a quiet period for another week or two as the dust continues and the seas in key areas are not as warm.

Almost all of the Atlantic's hurricanes come after August 1, so we'll have to wait to see what happens later this summer and into the fall.

A persistent La Nia in the Pacific Ocean has been predicted to cause an above-normal season. Predicting a busy year for the Atlantic tropics was in line with other forecasts. On Thursday, the seasonal forecast will be updated by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

There is a listing image by GSO Images.