2 reasons why the NBER won't declare that the economy is officially in a recession

The US economy is being debated by investors as to whether or not it is in a recession. Raymond James says the answer is no.

The US economy is not considered to be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research declares one. It is possible for the NBER to make its decision months after the recession ended.

The fact that GDP growth fell in the first and second quarters supports the idea that the economy is in a recession. GDP growth fell in the first and second quarters.

Larry Adams told clients in a Friday note that the economy is not in a recession. We don't think the NBER will say the economy is in a recession.

The impact business inventories have had on GDP growth is one of the reasons.

This is the first thing. It's a Habitat that's good for survival.

We agree with the Fed that we are not in a recession because of the labor market. The three-month moving average of job gains is 375,000, 4.5 times the historical average of 80,000 jobs added at the beginning of a recession. Adams said that the unemployment rate would be the lowest since 1969 and the third lowest after World War II.

Industrial production is on the rise and durable orders increased in June.

There are two GDP was taken a bit by inventions.

A reduction in inventories alone caused a 2% detraction to growth. This is a bad thing. Consumers are still buying and inventories being worked down is a sign of that. Government spending retreating from record levels during COVID should not be a surprise and is likely to become less of a drag as we move further away from the fiscalStimulus programs.

In the third- and fourth-quarter, Adams expects the economy to return to sub-trend growth mode. Raymond James believes that the decline in gas prices can shift sentiment, that earnings are not tanking, and that good and services spending is strong.