Since satellite photos of a miles-long Russian convoy trapped in a traffic jam of its own creation emerged from Ukraine in March, fans of the legendary Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II have been eager to see it join the fight.
It's time to temper our BRRRT-based rhetoric with a healthy dose of reality now that sending A-10s to Ukraine is starting to seem doable.
"It's not that easy," an Air National Guard A-10C Thunderbolt II pilot told TheAviationist.com. "It has to be a pretty permissive environment for us to just roll in and do a gun run. That doesn't happen much anymore."
The A 10 isn't the right jet for the fight. It wouldn't fare well at all.
The fighting in Ukranian is very different.
The Warthog used a combination of the pilot's titanium tub and a laundry list of redundant equipment to deliver 65 massive 30mm rounds to enemy positions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This wasn't the A-10's original purpose, but it proved to be more effective at delivering air support to troops in contact than it ever could have been against waves of Soviet armor.
The Global War on Terror was a great opportunity for the A-10 to shine, as it pitted American troops against opposing forces with no airpower or advanced air-defense capabilities.
The A-10's strengths were visible but its weaknesses were not. There were few man-portable air-defense systems that were used by the opposition. Air-defense systems were nowhere to be found.
"In a higher-threat environment, many of the A-10's tactics would place the aircraft at a high risk of being shot down. Indeed, against very high-quality air defenses, most current USAF and Navy aircraft would operate at considerable risk." — "Defining an Approach for Future Close Air Support Capability" by John Matsumura and John Gordon IV, Randall Steeb for the Rand Corporation
There is still a lot of dispute over the airspace over Ukranian. Russian fighters and air-defense systems remain a prevalent part of the fighting despite the fact that Ukrainian aircraft continue to fly combat sorties.
Russia's air-defense systems are capable of engaging the Warthog, even though they aren't as strong as they are.
Attempting to hold its own against thoroughbred fighters in a one-on-one standoff is more of a desperation than a procedure.
The A-10 is an easy target for Russian air-defense systems and a variety of Russian fighters.
Ukrainians seem to be aware of that.
A-10's "will not close our sky, they will not stop bombers and missiles," Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of defense, told Military.com.
"They will be a target for Russian jet fighters and anti-aircraft defense, because we don't have the means neither to effectively cover them, nor to break through the enemy anti-aircraft defence."
The truth will set us all free and I can already feel the anger in the comments that will be drawn.
The GAU-8 Avenger is an amazing cannon. At almost 20 feet long and nearly 600 pounds, this seven barrel Gatling-style autocannon was able to fire up to 2,100 rounds per minute in a low setting and up to 4,200 rounds per minute in a high setting.
The A-10) fires 65 rounds per second and we're not talking about just any rounds. 65 of these are per second.
You can see a replica 30mm round from the A 10's GAU-8 next to an armor-piercing.50 cal round and a standard.223 rifle round.
To our limited human senses, the A 10 fires a uranian laser beam at targets from less than 4,000 feet away.
I'm not saying the A-10 isn't effective at turning targets into bad guy-flavor oatmeal, but it's important to realize that it's not as effective against Russian armor as people think.
To be clear, the A-10's GAU-8 and its 30mm armor-piercing rounds can be extremely effective against the armor Russia's dated tank force largely made up of poorly maintained T 72s, but being effective requires a great deal of pilot skill and effective operational planning
In 1979 the Naval Postgraduate School used low angles of attack to test the effectiveness of the A-10.
The Warthog was not effective against the 1950s-era tank when engaging from the front, but it was effective when attacking from the sides.
In seven total passes against T-62 tanks at altitudes ranging from 200 feet to just 1,587 feet, the A-10s fired a total of 959 rounds and hit the tanks with just 93. There were 93 rounds that hit T-62s. No rounds hit the tank in one pass.
It's not always necessary to have penetrating armor for anti-tank battles. Damage to the suspension or tank treads can be just as valuable as the damage done to the vehicle.
The A-10) could take out T-62s at a rate of.43 kills per pass, or less than once every two times around the bend.
It's important to understand that the T-62 was mounted at a steep angle to improve performance. The equivalent of 200mm of rolled armor is said to be offered. The armor on the sides and back is thick.
The most common Russian T-72s have 200mm thick armor up front and are said to be between 500 and 600mm in thickness.
The sides of the tank are covered with rolled steel plates to protect them against missiles, rockets, and other anti-tank weapons.
It seems likely that the A-10 would find success when attacking from the back or sides if it engaged at a range of between 2,000 and 3000 feet.
This is doable, but would be difficult in a combat environment, especially for pilots who only have a short time to train on the platform.
Ukrainian A-10 pilots would need to be highly skilled at operating their aircraft while using timely intelligence to attack from effective angles and distances while flying under active threats from Russian air defense systems.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukrainian troops have been using their own Su-25s, which are often compared to the A-10).
The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a platform that could potentially serve in close air support roles while still being able to defend itself against enemies.
Ukraine needs jets that don't rely on other fighters to manage the sky for them, even though the A-10) is an amazing aircraft.
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