A huge Chinese rocket is in the process of crashing to the ground. The Long March 5B is likely to hit Earth this weekend.
China launched a rocket to deliver a lab module to its space station, which is currently under construction. The rocket junk is expected to reenter the atmosphere sometime on Saturday or Sunday.
There is a small chance that the debris will land in a populated area.
The blue and yellow lines show where the rocket booster could fall.
The satellite icon shows where the booster will be in the middle of the day. The icon isn't a prediction of where the booster will go.
China has launched a Long March 5B three times and allowed it to fall to Earth. The rocket is going to be launched in October.
It is not possible to know where the rocket stage will fall.
With time, the density of the upper atmosphere varies. The weather up there is actually good. Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said at a Thursday briefing that it's not possible to predict when the satellite will reenter the atmosphere.
Huge discrepancies in predictions can be caused by how quickly debris zips through space. He said that if you're an hour off, you're 17,000 miles away from where it's going to come down.
Up to 40% of the mass of a large object will reach the ground according to experts. Between 5 and 9 tons of material is expected to fall.
Normally, after a launch, rockets push themselves into the atmosphere and fall back to Earth over remote ocean areas. China hasn't designed or programmed the Long March 5B to do that.
It appears to be irresponsible on the surface. It is possible that they have the technical data to know that it will come down in the South Pacific. One possibility is that. John Logsdon is the founder of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute and a former member of the NASA Advisory Council.
China could be held responsible for the damage if rocket parts land on people. The launching nation is responsible for any damage caused by its rockets.
Current debris-mitigation guidelines and long-term sustainable guidelines from the UN's Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space include recommendations to minimize the risk posed to people and property on Earth. They're not very technical or specific and they're not binding. There's no legal consequences if you don't take steps to mitigate the risk.
The actors that are publicly responding to this behavior and saying that it's irresponsible will determine whether we'll be able to develop stronger or not.
There was a piece of the Long March rocket that landed in the Indian Ocean. Property damage was caused in Africa in May of 2020 when a Chinese rocket broke up.
The UN has been discussing the rules of good behavior. They're aware of the need to follow certain rules. It's hard to think that they would be irresponsible if they ignored it.
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