The market is wondering if the Fed is doing enough to tame inflation after GDP fell for a second quarter in a row.
It could be a sign that the central bank has been too passive in the fight to squash the sky-high inflation, meaning that a recession could already be here.
In an interview with CNBC, El-Erian said that the economy is weakened at a much faster rate than expected. In the second quarter of this year, GDP fell for the second straight quarter.
The technical definition of a recession means that the economy is in a downturn despite a strong labor market.
But "whether we are in a recession or not, it's not as interesting as the fact that the economy is slowing very quickly," El-Erian said.
He said that if the economy weakens faster than the Fed can bring down inflation, it suggests that a recession could be imminent if it isn't already here.
At a press hearing yesterday, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that inflation was beginning to show signs of rolling over, but El-Erian noted that he believed inflation was at the neutral rate, a rate where monetary policy isn't accommodating or restrictive.
El-Erian thinks differently. The economist wrote that he had a hunch that the Fed waited too long to begin hiking rates to make a soft landing plausible. As inflation continued to soar and the Fed showed meekishness in its monetary stance, he criticized the central bank for warning the public for months of a recession.
"Yes, inflation is going to come down on a headline level, but it's not going to come down fast enough, and that is going to put the Fed in the same dilemma that it's been in for the past few months," El-E said.
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