It’s time for another round of anxiety over a Chinese rocket booster falling back to Earth

Photo credit should read CFOTO / Future Publishing via Getty Images

Sometime this weekend, a massive booster from a Chinese rocket will begin an uncontrollable fall back to Earth from space, and because of its enormous size and weight, parts of it may survive the descent through our planet's atmosphere. The chances of the rocket hitting anyone and killing them are very low, but a similar falling Chinese rocket last year caused major concern around the world.

The booster is part of a Long March 5B rocket, which launched on July 24th and sent a new module into space. The core booster is the biggest part of the rocket. The booster goes around in the sky before falling back to earth. It is possible that up to 9 tons of material could survive the fall since the rocket part is more than 100 feet long.

The Long March 5B booster will come down, and space trackers are trying to find out when and where it will happen. The situation is similar to last year's global scare over a Chinese rocket that fell back to Earth and a similar situation in 2020. The core booster from China's Long March 5B does not have the ability to beDumpsterDumpsterDumpster In 2020, when the rocket fell in the Indian Ocean, it sent metal pipes and other objects into villages without causing any injuries.

The risk to the average human from this year's rocket is very low. According to the Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit that does space research and development, there are six chances in 10 trillion that a part of this rocket will hit you and cause some kind of casualty or injury. It's frustrating that space trackers have to deal with this type of issue without knowing when and where the rocket will come down.

Why aren't we happy? Ted Muelhaupt, a space traffic expert and consultant with theAerospace Corporations' corporate chief engineer's office, said during a presser about the rocket that it caused property damage the last time. This is not something that needs to be done. The technology allows us to not have this problem.

Reports of a 12-m-long object crashing into the village of Mahounou in Cote d'Ivoire. It's directly on the CZ-5B reentry track, 2100 km downrange from the Space-Track reentry location. Possible that part of the stage could have sliced through the atmo that far (photo: Aminata24) pic.twitter.com/yMuyMFLfsv

— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) May 12, 2020

The rule for space operators in the United States and Europe is that if there is a chance of space debris falling into Earth's atmosphere, it must be less than one in 10,000. US and European missions have to be careful about how they dispose of the rockets they send into space due to the high bar. Once you have delivered your cargo, you turn your rocket around, fire the engine, and drive it back into the ocean, where there is no population, according to a space debris expert. You have mitigated the risk by doing that.

Most launch providers around the world already do controlled disposal. Parts of their rockets are deposited over the ocean after they are launched to space. The core of the Falcon 9 rocket is famous for being able to fly back to Earth and land upright, either on a drone ship or a landing pad. The core booster of the Long March 5B isn't able to do that. The engines on the rocket core can't reignite once it's in the air Jonathan McDowell is an astronomer at the Harvard Center for Astrophysics and space tracking expert. This thing just burns and then dies. We have to wait for it to fall back to Earth, as it will decay over time.

There is a chance of a casualty from the Long March 5B booster falling. There is heightened vigilance around this case because it is 10 times above the threshold. The US doesn't like China pulling stunts like this. NASA administrator Bill Nelson said when the Long March 5B fell that spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth. It is clear that China isn't meeting the proper standards for their space debris.

China seemed to take notice of the criticism. The Chinese official mentioned that they had made improvements to dispose of the booster after the launch. A former director for international cooperation at the China National Space Administration said during a livestream that the last segment of the mission would work as a spaceship. We have to bring it back in a controlled way. One of the first missions was not able to do that. The passivation of the last stage has been done so that we can bring back the last part.

Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:

31 Jul 2022 00:24 UTC ± 16 hours

Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow this page for updates:  https://t.co/SxrMtcJnj0 pic.twitter.com/CZRQBClOAg

— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) July 28, 2022

It seems that nothing has changed since the last scare. The booster is tumbling through space, indicating that there is no control over it. Predicting where it will come down all over again is what we will be doing. The European Union, the US Space Force, and the Aeronautical Corporation all have their best guesses as to when it will come down. Depending on where it comes down, it will either be North or South. About one billion people live north and south of those lines. You are right outside of the zone. The majority of the human population lives within that range.

The predictions will get more precise as we get closer to Sunday, and theAerospace Corporation is constantly updating its predictions here. The Space Force is also keeping an eye on it. What will happen when the rocket comes down? The debris could travel hundreds of miles along the rocket's track. Depending on their size and weight, some pieces may hit the ground slowly, while others may hit the ground fast. We may not know a lot about this event until the rocket comes down. The history of reentering things has been surprising. What amount actually does survive? It's possible that more survived than you thought.

It is important to keep things in perspective even though there is slightly more risk. The risk of getting hit in the head by a piece of space debris is 1 in 100 billion. You are more likely to be struck by lightning than by space debris. This doesn't mean that it's a good idea to do it.

Enjoy this new round of uncertainty. We might have to do it all again once it is over. A Long March 5B launch is scheduled for this fall.