Europe's natural gas prices fell on Thursday after six straight days of gains, but they are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.
Dutch TTF natural gas futures fell to below 205 euros per megawatt hour on Thursday, after soaring nearly a third over the past week and 145% since the beginning of June.
Russia cut flows of gas through theNord Stream 1 gas line to 20% of capacity in order to undermine its political opponents as the war in Ukraine continues.
It could take years for heavily reliant countries such as Germany to make up for the natural gas shortfall.
In a recent research note, a team led by the bank's head of natural gas research said that they expected European gas prices to go up again in the summer of 2023. We don't think there will be a sustained lower-price environment in Europe until 25 years from now.
Around 26% of Germany's gas imports come from the 759-mileNord Stream 1 line. As Russia prepared to invade Ukraine, Germany halted certification of a secondNord Stream line.
Putin said last week that the capacity would fall to 20% as it waits for the turbine to be reinstalled.
"We believe Russian supply uncertainty remains high despite the fact that we expect the flows to be restored back to a 40% run rate once the repaired turbine is in place."
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