Falling Space Junk has a 10% Chance of Killing Someone in the Next Decade

The statistics of how people die can be used to understand both how humans perceive threats and how they react to fear. You are more likely to be killed by a vending machine than by a shark. There is a real risk of falling space debris increasing in likelihood over the coming decades. There is a 10% chance that someone will die from debris falling from space over the next decade.

It isn't surprising to anyone in the space industry. The problem of debris from rockets and satellites has been growing for decades. Thankfully, we haven't had to report any deaths from it yet, but we do report on it frequently.

It could prove that we are just lucky. A part of a Long March 5B rocket hit a town on the west coast of Africa, in the past. There was some damage but no one was hurt.

It is only a matter of time before a person is. Private companies are sending up thousands of satellites to provide internet and other services in space. At what price?

There is no requirement to dispose of the non-reusable rocket stages that provide the launch capabilities to many companies and nations. Some of the components can weigh a ton and may not break up completely.

One part of the world that is more vulnerable to these risks is the Global South. Most of these nations don't have space-faring capabilities of their own, so they are more likely to be affected by it. The path of the rockets usually puts their unrecoverable bits into a position to fall below the equator.

In a new paper published in Nature Astronomy, researchers from the University of British Columbia point out the risks and differences. Space debris has a 10% chance of killing someone in the next decade. The person is most likely not from the nation that created the debris.

That sounds like a recipe for international acrimony, yet no polity has yet come forward to develop a framework for regulating these potentially hazardous pieces of technology. The team at the University of British Columbia points out that there are systems and technologies in place that can stop the loss of life.

The most obvious requirement would be to have a controlled re-entry. The pieces of debris can be safely landed over one of the giant bodies of water. It is obvious that the technology is there to do this. Unless the regulatory bodies require it, rocket companies won't implement it.

Someone will die from falling space debris if something isn't done to stop this event. Hundreds of people could die from a single piece of debris if it hits an airplane. Hopefully, governments will take a proactive approach to prevent that from happening. The paper points them in the correct direction.

You can learn more.

Unless governments act, space rocket junk could be fatal.

There are unnecessary risks created by rocket reentries.