William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said on Wednesday that Russia's struggles in Ukraine would likely affect how and when China invades Taiwan.
The Chinese may have learned a lot from the war, according to Burns.
He thought that the Chinese were left "unsettled" by the poor performance of Russian troops and the strategic failure of Putin.
Burns warned that China's determination to "assert China's control" over Taiwan shouldn't be underestimated.
He thinks the Chinese leadership is studying the lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It probably doesn't affect the question of when the Chinese leadership will use force to control Taiwan, but how they will do it.
China likely observed that overwhelming force was needed to ensure quick, decisive victories in any invasion attempt. He said that this was not a sustainable political end game.
The Chinese leadership might be looking to "amass overwhelming force" and "shore up" their economy against possible international sanctions.
According to Burns, the priority for Xi is cementing his power during the upcoming Communist Party Congress and keeping the Chinese economy afloat. He said that the chances of a Taiwan invasion would go up in the late 2020s.
The Taiwanese view the island as an independent state with its own military, while the Chinese claim that it is part of its territory.
Donald Trump and others have speculated that China would attempt a military assault on Taiwan. The Taiwanese are trying to shore up their defense in case of a Chinese invasion.
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