After two straight quarters of subscriber losses, the company sees a more positive path ahead, but it still gives some analysts pause.
The subscriber growth is hitting a wall for Wall Street.
Both sides of the equation are being shored up by the company. Password sharing and advertising-based streaming could bring more subscribers into the fold. Spencer Neumann said on the earnings call that the company expects to spend $17 billion on content this year and stay in the same zip code in the future.
There could be a change in the way passwords are shared.
MoffettNathanson's Michael Nathanson believes that the current situation is not unique to the media industry.
He and his team wrote in a note to clients that they have grown comfortable with the idea that the end state of consumer-facing businesses usually starts with slowing unit volume growth that is offset by higher than inflation prices.
When these businesses hit that wall of slowing unit volume growth, the equity markets tend to convulse and crush the stock as value investors start to circle trying to determine where steady- He thinks that is the case of the company.
While acknowledging that the latest quarter wasn't as bad as analysts had expected, Nathanson still had some concerns. He said that as the company conducts price hikes, it will be hard pressed to continue to grow subscribers in the U.S. and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
The streaming market could be different than other media markets in terms of how such a move would play out, as he believes the company needs to slow content spending.
The hit to underlying economic models caused all market participants to re-assess their level of spending. Not every decision to reduce content investment has been met with fewer hits, as the creation of 'hits' is often a random walk.
He has a neutral rating on the stock and has cut his price target.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has dropped more than any other stock in the world. The stock, which recently changed hands near $213 is far off its November 2021 high of $691.69, but is at least moving closer to regaining a spot in $100 billion territory after Tuesday's results. It is worth $94 billion
Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI said it could take some time before investors are willing to give the company a big valuation boost.
Mahaney sees a lot of positives for the company, including its positioning in the market. He believes the market will need to see real success from the ad-supported and password-sharing initiatives before ascribing a sustainable premium multiple. We don't think there will be evidence of this success until later in the year.
He rates the stock at in-line with a $245 price target and writes that it is a potential long.
The company sounded less dire in its discussion of subscriber trends this time around, but the beat on the metric and projection of future growth did not impress many analysts.
The company, once a powerhouse, celebrated that net subs only fell 1 million to 220.7 million, half of the guided 2 million decline. It was a small difference on a large base that seemed more noise than substance.
The consensus view was that the third-quarter subscriber forecast was still below expectations. The commentary on the call indicated that investors would have to wait a bit longer to see the benefits of the ad tier.
The new tier won't launch until sometime in the early part of '23, which means we won't see any numbers on this until a year from now.
He acknowledged that the stock could see a short relief rally, but questions remain. Sub adds are only tracking to flat through Q3 and we don't know what the effect of a recession will be on subs. He raised his price target on the stock to $170.
There is a new look for Amazon's Prime Video.
The stock was upgraded by Scott Devitt from hold to buy in a note.
The prospect of a long period of subscriber losses is becoming less likely with signs of stabilization in the subscriber base. The viability of the growth initiatives, including password sharing and the introduction of ad-supported tiers, will be introduced next year.
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