Central bankers around the world are lifting interest rates at an aggressive clip as rapid inflation persists and creeps into a broad array of goods and services, setting the global economy up for a lurch toward more expensive credit, lower stock and bond values.
It's a moment unlike anything the international community has experienced in decades as countries try to bring rapid price increases under control before they become a more lasting part of the economy.
Strong demand for goods has led to a surge in inflation in many advanced and developing economies. The central banks spent months hoping that economies would reopen, that shipping routes would open, and that consumer spending would return to normal. The war in Ukraine has made the situation worse by disrupting oil and food supplies and pushing prices higher.
At least 75 central banks lifted interest rates this year from historically low levels. While policymakers cannot do much to contain high energy prices, higher borrowing costs could help slow consumer and business demand to give supply a chance to catch up and keep inflation at bay.
The European Central Bank will meet this week and is expected to make its first rate increase in four years, one that officials have signaled will be only a quarter point but will probably be followed by a larger move in September.
Other central banks have begun moving more aggressively already, with officials from Canada to the Philippines picking up the pace of rate increases in recent weeks amid fears that consumers and investors are starting to expect steadily higher prices. The Federal Reserve has made their response quicker. They lifted borrowing costs in June by the most since 1994 and suggested that an even bigger move is possible, though several in recent days have suggested that speeding up again is not their preferred plan for the upcoming July meeting.
As interest rates jump around the world, making money that has been cheap for years more expensive to borrow, they are stoking fears among investors that the global economy could slow sharply. Commodity prices, which can serve as a gauge of expected consumer demand and global economic health, have fallen. As the war in Ukraine increases uncertainty, international economic officials warn that the path ahead could be bumpy.
Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a post on Wednesday that it could be even tougher in the years to come. Ms. Georgieva said that central banks should act now to deal with inflation.
About three-quarters of the institutions have raised their interest rates in the last year. Emerging economies have moved by more than 3 percentage points while developed economies have lifted them by 1.7 percentage points.
I'm worried about the outlook. With persistently high inflation, rising consumer prices and declining spending, the American economy is showing signs of slowing down. There are other measures that signal trouble.
The consumer is confident. In June, the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in its 70 year history, with nearly half of respondents saying inflation is hurting their standard of living.
There is a housing market. Construction of new homes is slowing. As interest rates rise and real estate companies lay off employees, these trends could continue.
There is a substance called copper. A commodity seen by analysts as a measure of sentiment about the global economy because of its widespread use in buildings, cars and other products is down more than 20 percent since January.
There is oil Because of supply constraints caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, crude prices are up this year, but they have recently started to fall as investors worry about growth.
The bond market is a place to buy and sell bonds. Long-term interest rates in government bonds have fallen below short-term rates. It shows that bond investors think the economy is going to slow down.
In anticipation of the Fed's slow and steady moves to avoid big swings in their currency values, emerging markets have often raised interest rates. The European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all increasing their interest rates.
Bruce Kasman is chief economist and head of global economic research at JP Morgan Chase.
The last time major nations raised rates in tandem to fight inflation was in the 1980's, when global central banking was different.
As an era of very low rates ends and nations and companies try to adjust to changing capital flows, the risk of market turmoil increases because so many central banks are facing off against rapid inflation. Changing flows can affect whether a country can raise money by selling debt.
In a speech last week, the U.S. Treasury secretary said that financial conditions have tightened due to rising, broad-based inflationary pressures. Portfolio investment is starting to leave emerging markets.
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, said that the adjustment to higher interest rates could bebumpy. Savers can receive higher paybacks on less-risky investments if stock and other asset prices drift lower as rates move higher.
The incentive to chase yield pushed markets to higher valuations than they would have had based on fundamentals.
Some nations could fall into a recession as consumers and companies pull back their spending, as a result of the simultaneous action.
According to Mr. Kasman, the United States and Western Europe have a 40% chance of a recession in the next year. There is a risk due to central bank moves and upheaval from Russia's war inUkraine. It could mean that the Fed and other central banks have to raise rates later on to choke off growth and bring prices down if the recession can be avoided now.
Fed officials aspire to engineer a soft landing, in which hiring and spending cool down, but not so much that it plunges the economy into a deep and painful downturn.
Inflation has proven to be stubborn. The Consumer Price Index reading in the United States was higher than expected. Inflation in Canada is running at a faster rate than it has in the past. It is at a 40-year high in the UK.
A constrained supply of consumer goods like cars and clothing and a spike in oil and food costs are prompting much of the price surge. It explains why so many central banks are doing the same thing.
The Bank of England was the first of the major central banks to raise rates. Policymakers worry that higher rates could hurt the economy and cause a cost-of-living crisis. They have taken their cue from their global peers and signaled that they could act more forcefully. The chief economist of the Bank of England said there is a willingness to adopt a faster pace of tightening.
Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist atDeutsche Bank, said that many central banks are looking at this as a question of getting inflation and inflation expectations down
The Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in June. The officials have said that they will maintain that pace in July, but they have also said that there is a chance of a bigger rate increase.
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, said last week that inflation needs to be the Fed's focus. The spending and pricing decisions people and businesses make every day depend on their expectations of future inflation, which in turn depends on whether or not the Fed is committed to its inflation target.
The Bank of Canada surprised investors last week with its largest move since 1998 and warned of more to come.
With the economy in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the governing council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates.
The central bank in the Philippines surprised investors with a three quarter point increase this month. There is more to come. The world's central banks have made it clear that they expect borrowing costs to go up in the fall.
Brendan said that he wouldn't say that we're at peak tightening yet. From here, we could go even bolder.
What will that mean for the global economy? In June, the World Bank projected that global growth would slow but remain positive. David Malpass, head of the World Bank, wrote that there is a risk of a situation in which growth is stagnant and inflation is high.
If inflation becomes entrenched or shows signs of changing expectations, the central banks may have to respond more aggressively than they are now.
When it comes to the Fed, Mr. Kasman asked, "How far have they gone towards the conclusion that they need to kick us in the teeth, here?"
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