NASA's head warned that China may try to claim the moon — two space scholars explain why that's unlikely to happen

The Conversation contributed the article to Space.com's expert voices.

Svetla Ben-Itzhak is an assistant professor of space and international relations.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson expressed concerns over China's aims in space, and in particular, that China would be able to stop other countries from exploring the moon. Nelson warned that "we must be very concerned that China is landing on the moon and saying 'It's ours now and you stay out'." China denounced the claims as lies.

At a time when both nations are working on missions to the moon, the spat between the administrator of NASA and Chinese government officials comes at a good time.

China was the first country to land a spaceship on the far side of the moon. The South Pole of the moon is going to be reached by China and Russia in the next decade. Some Chinese officials and government documents want to build a permanent, crewed International lunar research station by the year 2027.

Setting up a lunar base in China is different from taking over the moon. Neither China nor any other nation is likely to take over the moon in the near future according to two scholars who study space security. The costs of such an endeavor would be high and the payoffs would be uncertain.

China has space plans for the next five years.

China is limited by international space law

Current international space law forbids China from taking over the moon. The Outer Space Treaty states that the moon and other bodies are not subject to national appropriation by means of use or occupation. The treaty states that no country can take possession of the moon and proclaim it an extension of its national ambitions. If China tried to do this it would be condemned by the international community.

The Outer Space Treaty allows any state to explore and use outer space, even if they don't own the moon. There will be other visitors to the South Pole of the moon in the future. A group of 20 countries, led by the U.S., have a plan to return humans to the moon by the year 2025.

Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the moon, it is possible that China, or any other country, would attempt to gradually establish defacto control over strategically important areas. The cumulative effect of the small steps that are taken to achieve a big change adds up to significant developments and increased control. This strategy has been used in the South and East China seas. It takes time and can be fixed.

Controlling the moon is difficult

The moon has a surface area of nearly 14 million square miles, or 39 million square kilometers, which makes it the fifth largest country in the world.

Water ice on the moon is important because it will allow humans to drink from it. Oxygen and hydrogen can be found in ice and could be used as rocket fuel. Water ice is a must for any mission to the moon or beyond.

Financial investments and long-term efforts are required to secure and enforce control of lunar areas. Everyone noticed that no country could do this alone.

Does China have the resources and capabilities?

China is spending a lot of money on space. It led in the number of launches with 55 compared to 51 for the U.S. There are three countries in the top three in deployment for 2021. China's state-owned StarNet space company is planning a megaconstellation of 12,992 satellites, and the country is almost done building the Tiangong space station.

Taking over the moon would cost more than going to the moon. NASA's space budget is around half that of China's, which is $13 billion in 2020. The United States and China increased their space budgets in 2020. Even with the increased spending, China doesn't seem to be investing the money needed to carry out the expensive, daring and uncertain mission of taking over the moon.

If China were to take control of some part of the moon, it would be a huge risk. If China broke international law, it could invite reprisals and tarnish its international reputation. There are still uncertain payoffs that remain to be decided.

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