David Byrne Has A Giant Broadway Hit On His Hands; Others Aren't So Lucky

Broadway's fall season is well underway, and the divide between the haves and the have-nots is growing starker by the day.

Good news first. David Byrne, recipient of both Grammys and an Oscar, may be clearing space on his shelf for one more trophy. While the Tony Awards committee has yet to rule on its eligibility, his Broadway debut American Utopia has built remarkable steam, with great reviews and an enviable box office haul: grossing over 114% of its potential, with the average ticket going for $158 a pop.

The show is more concert than traditional musical, with Byrne offering wry commentary in between meticulously choreographed performances of his catalog. I caught it last week and while there is fan service aplenty, the whole thing is delightful for non-acolytes as well.

The obvious analogue here is Bruce Springsteen, another pop crossover who won a special non-competitive Tony for his Broadway residence last year. However, the comparison doesn't track on all fronts. The Boss grossed about $500,000 per curtain - a box office performance no other artist or property has matched, including Byrne. That may affect lobbying efforts for Tony recognition; much of the industry's goodwill toward Springsteen was tied to the massive national attention he brought to the biz. However, while that scale is unlikely to be repeated, Byrne's show is decidedly more theatrical in its construction, so there's room yet to make a case.

The industry's overall performance sank about 2% from the week prior, down to $33.98 million. That's still a record for the frame, but it highlights the tension as a bevvy of new shows attempt to establish their appeal in a crowded market.

Of them, Tina - The Tina Turner Musical is rising above the rest, maintaining its terrific stats, with another $1.37 million in its coffers. Also on the rise is the two-part The Inheritance. As producers flesh out the preview schedule, rotating between parts 1 and 2, grosses have risen handily, jumping six figures with each additional performance. There's plenty of room still to grow, but the average seat went for $111 this week - more than any other play on the docket not named To Kill a Mockingbird.

The Sound Inside also saw a sizable bump after opening to sterling reviews, and while it's far from new, Beautiful closed its six-year run on a high note, grossing $1.2 million for 121% of its potential.

Not everything was so cheery, however. The churn of a volatile market means that many shows struggle to build, or maintain, momentum. A number of former hits are losing ground fast, while five others (a significant portion of the Rialto's total 34) grossed less than half their potential, some of far less.

This bottom tier is composed of four plays and one musical. Linda Vista and The Great Society both appear hard to recommend, if for different reasons, while The Height of the Storm isn't seeing much return on its incredible lead actors. Meanwhile mentalist Derren Brown's Secret is mystifying in its lack of traction: it's the one show this season that truly merits the plaudit "you have to be there." And The Lightning Thief is just a monumental miscalculation - the only question there is how early it's going to close.

Also in rough shape is Tootsie, which, after bouncing up over the last few weeks, sank back into the red, where it's been flat for the last several months. It's a slow bleed, but a bleed nonetheless, and a number of antsy shows are surely eyeing the Marquis with renewed interest. Mean Girls is in the middle of a long, slow slide as well, though its ultimate tail is harder to measure. And Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, unthinkable as it sounds, is struggling mightily to stay above the $1 million threshold, with the average seat now going for a pittance at $77 - one of the cheapest in the industry.

Finally there's the unusual case of Frozen. Given the film's billion-dollar performance, and the might of Disney shoving it out across their empire, you'd think it would be an evergreen mainstay on the Main Stem, like The Lion King and Aladdin. But alongside Mean Girls and Harry Potter, the $50 million adaptation is grossing less than half of what it was only a year ago. Its average ticket price is tied with Potter at the bottom of the pack. The upcoming holidays will be a boon, but if the current sales trajectory continues, the House of Mouse may let it go sooner than anyone could have predicted.

Disclaimer: Lee Seymour is a member of The Inheritance's producing team.