UK prepares for health emergency with 50% chance of 40°C heat

The author is Adam Vaughan.

Hospitals are bracing for a spike in admissions when temperatures peak on Monday and Tuesday after the UK Met Office declared an emergency over the heat.

The level 4 alert issued today is the highest level possible and includes a warning that central and eastern England will be the hottest areas with population-wide adverse health effects experienced.

As hot air moves north from France and Spain, there is a 50 per cent chance of temperatures hitting the totemic milestone of 40C for the first time. Europe is facing its worst heat wave in more than two centuries.

Peter Stott at the Met Office said it was striking because of the temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. We might break the record for the warmest year in history. He says that we have the conditions that could give us 40C.

Without human-caused climate change, the chance of 40C in the UK would be a thing of the past. It could happen every 3.5 years in a high emissions scenario if the greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere by factories, cars and other activities are not stopped. According to scientists, all heatwaves today can be attributed to climate change.

Large swathes of the UK economy and society are expected to be affected by the heat next week. We will already have experienced heat-related deaths and we are not prepared for this extended intense heat.

She believes that community cooling rooms should be opened in the short term. According to a report by the University of Manchester, Birmingham is the most vulnerable neighbourhood to extreme heat.

According to the UK Health Security Agency, about 1600 people die in the UK in the next two years because of hot weather. The number of heat-related deaths is expected to increase without adequate adaptation. The UK hospitals have seen a rise in admissions in recent weeks due to another covid-19 wave, as well as an increase in calls to the health care hotline about heat exposure.

There will be impacts on infrastructure from energy to transport. Speed restrictions and train delays are likely to occur when rails are buckled. Power stations powered by coal and gas are less efficient at high temperatures. The operator of Britain's electricity system says it isn't expecting a lot of demand next week as people try to stay out of the sun.

As climate change raises global average temperatures beyond the 1.1C of warming to date, there could be greater energy demand for cooling. He says a key unknown is how many will install it in the future, increasing electricity demand and financial costs. 75% of the country's cooling energy needs could be met by homes by the end of the century according to a study. Passive measures at home include external shades, white roofs, and closing blinds and curtains on sun-facing sides of buildings.

The natural world is being affected by the heat. Animals are being forced to seek shade for longer periods according to the Wildlife Trusts. The Brockdale river in Yorkshire has very low water levels. Firebreaks and fire ponds have been created to reduce the risk of fires.

Over the centuries, wildlife has had to deal with changing climates. Over a shorter space of time, species are facing extreme changes.

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